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Bitcoin: Jurrien Timmer is optimistic about its potential to return to $100,000

2026-09-28 06:30:35

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Cryptocurrency market returns to critical level, Bitcoin tests main resistance again

As Bitcoin prices test main resistance again, the cryptocurrency market returns to a critical level. Jurrien Timmer, director of global macroeconomics at Fidelity, believes a four-year bullish cycle may have begun. Nine months ago, he believed that 2026 would become a "breathing period" after going through a downward phase. His chart places the $80,000 threshold at the heart of scenario analysis and predicts that if the resistance is exceeded, prices are expected to move towards $100,000.

Summary of Core Views

Jurrien Timmer believes a new four-year bullish cycle may be taking shape.
According to his analysis, if it exceeds US$80,554, it will confirm a double-bottom pattern aimed at hitting US$100,000.
Technical calculations show that the potential target price after the breakthrough is approximately US$103,400.
On September 25, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a capital inflow of US$134 million.

Bitcoin returns to the US$80,000 mark

Jurrien Timmer was previously cautious about the market trend in 2026 and estimated that the market may enter a period of rest. He has mentioned that the new halving cycle (four-year period) may be coming to an end, and even described 2026 as a buffer period. At the time, Timmer set support between $65,000 and $75,000. However, subsequent declines eventually broke through this range, with prices falling to $60,000 in early February and further falling to $57,800 at the end of June.

九个月后，随着市场重新站稳8万美元上方，Timmer对其比特币分析进行了更新。在9月25日发布的分析中，Timmer指出比特币在80,554美元处存在水平阻力位。图表显示了两个底部，分别为60,033美元和57,742美元；同时也显示了接近阻力位的峰值， notably 5月的82,807美元以及最近一次峰值的82,266美元。

指向10万美元的技术形态

根据Timmer的分析，突破8万美元将确认双底形态。在他的图表中，这一阻力位精确位于80,554美元附近。因此，对该关口的持续突破将是其迈向10万美元情景的核心要素。

文中展示的计算进一步强化了这一预测。底部57,742美元与80,554美元阻力位之间的差额为22,812美元。将此振幅加到突破位上，理论目标价接近103,400美元。若以5月峰值82,807美元为参考进行测量，预测值甚至可推高至约107,900美元。Timmer所保留的10万美元目标价，仍是这一技术解读中最保守的版本。

比特币价格在9月14日当周收于81,178美元，随后波动至84,000美元附近。若周线收盘于该水平，将是自1月19日当周（收于86,670美元）以来的最高点位。

预测市场仍显谨慎

Timmer并非唯一提及回归10万美元的分析师。PlanB为10月提出的情景也取决于市场能否维持在80,500美元上方。这两种方法都将这一阈值列为未来几周需要关注的关键水平。

然而，预测市场的表现显示出更为审慎的态度。在Kalshi平台上，与2026年突破10万美元相关的合约交易价格为39美分，低于前一日的41美分。该比例仍处于46%以下，而针对11万美元目标的合约仅交易在20美分。

短期期限内的谨慎情绪更为明显。关于突破87,500美元的9月合约价格在24小时内从35美分跌至22美分。这一下降反映了预测市场上对比特币即时预期的降温。

现货比特币ETF带来另一需求信号

与此同时，现货需求保持着不同的动态。根据Wu Blockchain的数据，美国现货比特币ETF在9月25日录得1.34亿美元的资金流入，这是资本连续第七天净流入。BlackRock的IBIT产品据传贡献了此次流入序列的一部分。

这一动向为观察比特币提供了另一个维度，与预测市场发出的更谨慎信号形成对比。一方面，短期合约降低了对某些价格水平的预期；另一方面，ETF继续记录每日资金流入，表明现货需求依然存在。

因此，8万美元区域仍是比特币接下来几个交易日关注的焦点。突破阻力位可能会加强双底形态的解读，并使10万美元的技术预测更接近现实。反之，预测市场发出短期谨慎信号，而ETF则维持着资金流入。比特币正带着多个待观察指标接近这一阶段，但其未来发展尚未确定。

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