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BTC 
ETH Key Facts
As of 1:54 noon EDT on Monday, the Bitcoin trading price was US$85,314, down approximately 2.5% from the opening price in 2026. Following the release of ISM services data, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose to about 5.35%.
On Friday, the 10-year real yield was 2.92%. Oliver Carding of Tesseract Group pointed out that if this indicator continues to exceed around 3%, the probability of Bitcoin falling to the US$80,000 to US$82,000 range will be greater than remaining above US$90,000.
The U.S. Treasury will release Monday's real yield data after the close, while the Federal Reserve will release minutes on Wednesday to show whether officials remain firmly in support of further rate hikes.
Why did Bitcoin decline on Monday?
Data showed that Bitcoin climbed to nearly $87,000 late Sunday night, but had given up all of its gains by noon Monday. This was mainly due to the release of ISM services survey data: The report, released Monday morning, showed that the price paid by companies increased at an accelerated pace in September.
Long-term yields continued to climb throughout the morning. Bond Desk's Stephen Alpher wrote that renewed selling in the bond market "may have put pressure on Bitcoin."
What drives up yields? Mainly real interest rates
The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates in September for the first time since 2023. CME FedWatch data shows that futures traders are still expecting another rate hike before the end of the year, but most believe this rate hike will occur after October.
Yardeni Research wrote on Sunday: "This year's increase in yields has been driven almost entirely by rising real yields, while inflation expectations have remained almost unchanged."
Real yield refers to the return on government bonds after deducting expected inflation. Higher real yields mean higher returns are forfeited by holding interest-free assets such as Bitcoin, putting pressure on risky assets.
According to data from the Ministry of Finance, the indicator was 2.88% on Thursday.
How far is Bitcoin from its opening price at the beginning of the year?
As of 1:54 pm EST, the Bitcoin transaction price was US$85,314, which was basically flat for 24 hours. Bitcoin opened at $87,508 this year.
Bitcoin prices have stalled three times since September 21 at just below this level. QCP Capital listed $87,200 as a key resistance level that Bitcoin needs to break through to confirm the start of the next round of gains.
Although stocks rose on Monday and Bitcoin fell, Glassnode's analysis in September found that deviations between Bitcoin and stocks during government bond sell-offs often signal short-term exhaustion of momentum rather than a lasting trend shift.
What factors will break the current range?
The Federal Reserve will release minutes of its September meeting on Wednesday. If the minutes show that officials are less confident in raising interest rates and Ethereum ETF funds return to flow in, QCP believes this may push Bitcoin past $87,400 and move towards $90,000.
反之，若出现鹰派意外惊喜，长期收益率进一步上升且ETF资金流出回归，则83,000美元将面临风险。
美国财政部将在债券市场收盘后公布周一的实际收益率数据，随后于周三下午公布会议纪要。
Lyn Alden Investment Strategy创始人Lyn Alden在X平台发文表示：“我在最近的采访中反复强调，收益率曲线甚至没有陡峭化。没有人‘失去长期端’，因为曲线仍然平坦。”
