Bad news from the United States and Iran dragged down HYPE price correction

Core Points

HYPE fell to US$67.8 on Coinbase, down 1.78% during the day.

Trump told reporters in Ankara that he \"believed\" that the memorandum of understanding with Iran was over.

The uptrend line and the 50-day simple moving average of $64.42 form the first defensive area.

The daily RSI is 53.28, which is at a neutral level and has not yet provided a clear direction.

Market dynamics and background

According to relevant media reports, Trump told reporters during the NATO summit in Ankara that he believed the Islamabad memorandum of understanding reached with Iran on June 17 was \"over.\" The wording is crucial: Trump did not announce a formal withdrawal from the framework, but expressed his personal view that the memorandum is no longer valid. This difference in expression has left the diplomatic state unclear, but the market has regarded the remarks as a directional signal.

HYPE\'s position on the chart

Despite the correction, HYPE\'s daily structure remains constructive. Prices are above the 50-day SMA of $64.42, above the uptrend line drawn from the May low of $38, and also above the 100-and 200-day SMA. As of press time, the trading price was $67.8, with prices fluctuating within a range of $66 to $72, which has been tested multiple times since early July but has not yet been exceeded.

The momentum indicator does not provide a directional interpretation. The daily RSI is 53.28, which is in the median range, which means that the current correction has not yet formed a clear belief in either side of the long or short. It is this neutrality that makes the testing of the trend line, rather than the RSI itself, the decisive technical event.

Bear scenario: Key positions that need to be broken down

The launch of a bearish path requires a set of specific conditions, not just the current correction. The first condition is that the daily closing price falls below the uptrend line that has defined the HYPE structure since its May low. This condition alone is not enough. The second condition is that the daily closing price falls below the 50-day SMA of $64.42, which is currently directly below the trend line and provides support for it.

The confirmation step is a test back. If bears fall below both levels and prices check back on the trend line or 50-day SMA from below and the area is rejected as resistance (rather than regaining support), then this pattern will open up deeper and more lasting downside. Historically, a failed sequence of support turning into resistance on daily charts has caused prices to move to the next horizontal reference level. For HYPE, the next reference level is near the $58 area, and further below is the $52 support level.

What factors may overturn a bearish view

A bearish scenario relies on a series of events that have not yet been triggered, and every link in the chain has a point where it can be broken.

Let\'s start with the catalyst itself. Trump did not sign an exit agreement, issue an executive order, or notify allies in Ankara of his formal withdrawal. He simply expressed his thoughts to reporters. The wording leaves diplomatic room for both sides, after Trump\'s previous remarks on Iran have swayed between \"waste of time\" and \"major solutions\" in the same news cycle. If the tone changes before the close on July 9, the market will lose its reason to maintain a risk premium.

The chart itself also questions the bearish view. HYPE\'s gains from May to July pushed prices from $38 to $76.50, while the current $67.89 price is still above all major moving averages, above the uptrend line, and above the horizontal platform that served as resistance for most of June and is now becoming support. The market structure that took two months to form will rarely collapse due to a single 1.78% correction K-line, and the US$66 to US$67 range has withstood the test many times.

The last level is historical performance. In 2026, headlines about Iran have hit the cryptocurrency market many times, and in each event, unless a second escalation occurs later, the initial risk avoidance trend will be digested within 72 hours. Ankara\'s remarks were loud, but they were only a verbal escalation rather than a substantive escalation of action. A bearish scenario would require a visible retaliatory response from Tehran or another step up from Washington. If neither happens, the risk premium may dissipate from the market rather than accumulate.

This article is for information reference only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult a professional before making an investment decision.