Exchange Ranking
Top Exchanges
24h Volume Ranking
Popularity Ranking
Exchange BTC Balance
Proof of Reserves
Decentralized Exchanges
Funding Rate
Funding Heatmap
Liquidation Data
Max Pain
Long/Short Ratio
Whale L/S Ratio
Binance/Okex/Huobi L/S
Bitfinex Margin L/S
ETF Tracker
Solana ETF
XRP ETF
Hong Kong ETF
Bitcoin Treasuries
Crypto Reversal
Ethereum Reserves
HyperLiquid Wallet Analysis
Hyperliquid Whale Watch
Large Transactions
On-chain Movement
Bitcoin ROI
Stablecoin Market Cap
Options Analysis
News
Articles
Economic Calendar
Features
Wallet
Contract Calculator
Security
Collections
Watchlist
Following
BTC Bitcoin (BTC) returned to the US$63,000 mark on Thursday, but traders were concerned that the market could see a correction before the US$1.4 billion options on Deribit expired on Friday. The concern stems from U.S. government bond yields climbing to levels many see as warning signs. Is the $62,000 support level at risk?
Key Points:
The rise in U.S. Treasury yields indicates deepening debt concerns and negative pressure on risky assets.
Bitcoin option put/call volume remained balanced, implying limited downside at the $62,000 level.
U.S. 10-year Treasury yield (left) versus Bitcoin/US dollar (right). Source: TradingView
Bitcoin ETF outflows are not a concern before options expire
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is approaching 4.6%, reflecting investors \'anxiety about the expansion of U.S. Treasuries and expectations of further monetary policy easing to avoid a recession. Bitcoin was also affected, moving sideways, while the Nasdaq 100 index was only 4% below its all-time high.
The bullish momentum of the artificial intelligence sector continues to attract funds to the stock market. Asian chipmaker SK Hynix received oversubscription in its U.S. initial public offering, pushing the sector higher on Thursday, with Arm Holdings (ARM) up 10%, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) up 7%, and Micron (Micron) up 7%.
On Wednesday, the spot Bitcoin ETF showed a net outflow of $85 million, ending a brief three-day inflow period. However, this figure does not represent a reversal in the flow of institutional funds. More importantly, the demand for bitcoin options remains balanced between call options (buy) and put options (sell).
Bitcoin option put/call volume ratio on Deribit. Source: Laevitas
Volume of call options has exceeded put instruments in the past four days, reflecting reduced demand for downward moves. However, the upcoming weekly options expiration presents an interesting pattern: call options with strike prices of up to $62,500 total $137 million, while put options with strike prices above $61,000 total $121 million.
Derivbit BTC options open interest (July 10, 2024). Source: Deribit
If Bitcoin breaks through US$63,500 before it expires at 8:00 a.m. UTC on Friday, the bulls will have a significant advantage, extending their advantage to US$190 million. Shorts hold a small US$100 million advantage below US$61,000 and have limited selling momentum in the absence of additional catalysts.
Falling oil prices may boost demand for risky assets
A temporary ceasefire in the Middle East may ease recession concerns and prompt funds to shift away from fixed income markets to risk markets, which is likely to push Bitcoin prices higher. In contrast, the continued strength of the artificial intelligence sector will draw money away from other investment areas, and traders are worried about a massive U.S. issuance of treasury bonds to cover growing debt.
Related: Bitcoin falls back to $62,000, futures traders wary of Fed cut risk: Is the BTC rally over?
WTI crude oil futures (left) are compared to Nasdaq 100 index futures (right). Source: TradingView
Traders should pay close attention to whether U.S. Treasury yields fall back in the coming week and whether the intensification of the conflict in Iran will push oil prices higher. However, as the buying of put options in the options market has remained restrained in recent trading days, the market seems ready to consolidate the $62,000 support level.
Bitcoin is in a delicate situation: if the option successfully reaches US$63,500 when it expires, it may bring short-term relief, but continued upward momentum requires a macro boost. As long as these dynamics continue, Bitcoin\'s bullish momentum will be limited and downside risks will be relatively low.
