Is Bitcoin's worst over? Glassnode finds early signs of recovery

Cryptocurrency markets look for confirmation bottom signals, and on-chain indicators show selling pressure or relief

Cryptocurrency markets continue to look for clues that can confirm the end of the recent price weakening period. Multiple data points on the chain are attracting the attention of analysts as they try to identify the first signs of a continuing reversal. In this context, Bitcoin has once again become the focus of Glassnode's observations. An indicator tracked by its research team suggests that although multiple technical positions remain decisive, investors 'selling pressure may have begun to ease.

In short,

Glassnode observed the first on-chain signal that could signal the end of the market allocation phase. BTC holders who have held it for one to two years have realized losses and are beginning to show signs of stabilization. A continued reversal in this indicator may indicate that selling pressure is gradually being exhausted. The $69,000 mark is currently seen as the main level to confirm the need for a breakthrough for recovery.

Bitcoin: Glassnode observes stable loss signals

While multiple on-chain indicators are being closely watched to detect possible shifts in Bitcoin's momentum, Glassnode's chief research analyst Cryptovizart highlighted in an analysis one indicator he believes is crucial to identifying potential market bottoms: the realized losses (in US dollars) of cryptocurrency holders who have held it for one to two years.

In his view, the losses realized by investors who have held assets for one to two years will help better understand the evolution of Bitcoin selling pressure. This indicator reveals the behavioral characteristics of a certain category of holders that often play a decisive role in trend changes.

The analysis is based on the following key points: the research period is from July 2024 to July 2025 and is used to analyze realized losses on the blockchain. The Bitcoin price at the beginning of the period was approximately US$62,800. The peak reached was close to $107,000 before many investors turned. Research shows that many investors who bought during this period gradually accepted selling at a loss after a long period of poor price performance. This capitulation increased the selling pressure observed in the market. For Cryptovizart, this behavioral pattern is consistent with patterns that have emerged in previous bear market cycles.

Analysts caution that historically, bear markets have tended to persist as long as such investors continue to sell. On the other hand, as this pressure begins to ease, market conditions will gradually become more conducive to the shift in momentum.

Realized loss reversal ready-made focus

A chart shared by Glassnode analysts shows that the 30-day moving average of realized losses recently exceeded US$75 million. However, the indicator then began to slow down and the trend reversed. According to Cryptovizart, the stabilization and subsequent reversal of this moving average is one of the most watched signals identifying a possible bottom out of the Bitcoin bear market. However, he cautioned that such indicators do not provide instant confirmation. It represents more of an additional factor that strengthens the assumption of a gradual shift in kinetic energy.

This observation will still require continued attention in the coming weeks. If a downward trend in realized losses is confirmed, it could indicate that selling pressure on investors who bought near the peak of the previous cycle has been exhausted.

The $69,000 mark is still the next market test.

Glassnode emphasized that realized losses are not the only indicator to focus on. Other on-chain data also continues to provide information about the current market structure. Among them, the stochastic relative strength index (RSI) calculated over a two-month period presents conditions traditionally associated with the reversal phase.

The company specifically points out the comprehensive cost base for short-term holders. That level is currently around $69,000 and also corresponds to a previous all-time high reached during the 2021 bull market. For Glassnode, this area could trigger a significant reaction from Bitcoin investors. Analysts believe that "many short-term holders may tend to sell when their positions return to the break-even point." A convincing breakthrough in this level will open up more room for market recovery. On the contrary, if it is rejected, this resistance level will continue to be maintained as the main obstacle for Bitcoin.

The coming weeks will verify whether the signals observed by Glassnode increase or remain isolated. The evolution of realized losses, combined with the market's performance around $69,000, will provide a new basis for assessing Bitcoin's ability to identify true trend changes.