Solana approaches $80, but a more severe test lies ahead

Key Points

ETF inflows have remained positive for four consecutive weeks.

Recent inflows exceed the total of the previous three weeks.

SOL prices are still fluctuating in the range of US$73 to US$84.

US$79 is the first breakthrough of resistance.

Alpenglow upgrade may be the next catalyst.

Prices have rebounded from June lows, but remain within range

Prices have rebounded sharply from June lows of about $60, but remain within the $73 to $84 range that has dominated trading since the crash. SOL is also currently well below its flat 100-day simple moving average of $79, putting the market directly facing its first significant resistance level.

At the same time, the Solana Spot ETF has recorded positive weekly readings for four consecutive weeks, providing the market with a more supportive background for capital flows, while the chart trend remains unclear.

ETF demand accelerates rather than just remaining positive

Data for four consecutive weeks shows that Solana spot ETFs continue to achieve net inflows, but the scale of inflows has changed significantly.

Weekly data| Total net inflow
July 21, 2026| US$8.47 million
July 17, 2026| US$948,000
July 10, 2026| US$930,000
July 2, 2026| US$5.75 million

According to SoValue, the latest week's total inflow of $8.47 million came from $2.64 million on July 20 and $5.83 million on July 21. The inflow in these two days alone exceeded the combined positive weekly totals (approximately US$7.63 million) in the previous three weeks. The recent concentration of demand has strengthened the capital flow signal, but ETF inflows do not automatically solve the price structure problem. SOL is still below the resistance level that has suppressed the rebound many times, which means that although the data supports the bottom, no breakthrough has been confirmed.

The June crash evolved into a clear range

June's decline pushed Solana to near $60, before buyers pushed a rebound. Since then, prices have formed a series of higher lows, but each strong rise has been blocked near the upper limit of the current range. The result is a horizontal consolidation in prices between about $73 and $84. The rising 50-day simple moving average ($73) now overlaps the lower edge of the range, providing both horizontal support and moving average support for the bottom of the range.

SOL is currently located in the middle of the structure, rather than at either extreme. This makes small daily movements around $78 of limited significance because prices have neither broken through resistance nor threatened a bottom. The flat 100-day moving average strengthens the neutral judgment. It is located directly above the market, indicating that the previous downtrend has lost some momentum but has not been replaced by a confirmed uptrend.

US$79 opens the door, US$84 confirms trend

The first test is $79, where the 100-day moving average is located. If the daily close is above this level, SOL will move out of the middle of the range and reopen the path to $84-the level where the rebound in mid-July was blocked. Recovering $79 will improve the short-term structure, but the more important confirmation signal is at the upper edge of the range. If the price volume exceeds US$84, it will produce the first higher high since May. This will change the nature of the rally: SOL no longer fluctuates back and forth between established support and resistance, but begins to break the sequence that has suppressed prices since previous highs. The falling 200-day simple moving average ($89) will then become the next visible obstacle, testing whether the market can extend the range break into a broader trend reversal.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is close to 55, leaving room for two-way price fluctuations. Momentum is neither overbought nor severely weakened, so the outcome is more likely to depend on how SOL reacts near the 100-day moving average and $84 than on extreme indicator readings.

Why the bottom of $73 might define the entire base

The $73 area combines the lower edge of the range with a rising 50-day moving average, making it a key level to protect the rally from returning to the June structure. If prices are blocked below the 100-day moving average, it will initially trap SOL in range. Prices may retreat to around $73, which will not destroy the bottom as long as buyers continue to hold on to the area. If the daily price closes below $73, it will be even more disruptive: it will break both horizontal support and the moving average that continues to rise during the rebound. This loss will expose a lower rebound area (about $66), followed by the June bottom (about $60). Falling back to these levels would indicate that recent consolidation has failed to establish a solid bottom.

Alpenglow upgrade: a catalyst beyond ETF capital flows

Solana is about to usher in the expected activation window of its Alpenglow consensus upgrade, which is scheduled to be launched on the main network from August to October 2026. The exact time depends on the release of the Agave 4.2 client and sufficient verifier key registration to complete the required testing and security audits. Representative Alpenglow's comprehensive renovation of the Solana Consensus Layer will replace Proof of History (PoH) and Tower BFT. While ETF funding flows strengthen, upcoming upgrades may attract more market attention. However, as long as SOL remains below $79 and $84, the event does not confirm the end of the range. A stronger response requires continued ETF demand, a recovery of the 100-day moving average and enough volume to break the July cap. Without these combinations, Alpenglow may strengthen Solana's narrative, but prices will still be sideways.

Between capital flows and structures

Solana's fundamentals are becoming more positive, but prices have not yet followed up with the same confidence. ETF demand is strengthening, Alpenglow provides a potential catalyst, and the chart is still constrained below the main resistance level. Therefore, until the interval is clear, the structure remains neutral. Buyers have so far protected the rebound, but only by confirming a breakthrough on the upper edge can the consolidation be transformed into a more lasting trend.