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FollowingElon Musk does not rule out the possibility of a merger between Tesla and SpaceX
During Wednesday's earnings conference call, Elon Musk did not rule out the possibility of a merger between Tesla and SpaceX, a statement that prompted a long-term investor to increase the probability of a merger to 90%.
Highlights
Musk pointed to increasing overlap between the two companies, but said an earnings conference call was not the appropriate place to discuss the merger.
Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management raised the probability of the merger from 80% to 90%.
Tesla's second-quarter revenue hit a record $28.24 billion, but adjusted earnings per share of 33 cents were significantly lower than expectations.
Musk avoids the issue of Tesla and SpaceX merger
Wells Fargo analyst Colin Langan asked whether the merger of the two companies would ultimately produce synergy. Musk hinted at the possibility of integration, but made no commitment. He told investors that the two companies 'businesses are increasingly overlapping, and singled out Terafab, a semiconductor project jointly built in Texas, calling it a huge project.
He then terminated the topic, saying that any discussion of the merged company must be conducted through an appropriate process rather than quarterly conference calls. General Counsel Brandon Ehart then gave a cautious answer, saying SpaceX is Tesla's partner and the two parties are closely connected through equity and a framework agreement signed earlier this year.
Musk then spent a few minutes listing the connections between the two companies. He said Starlink will connect to Cybercab and eventually all Tesla vehicles sold in service coverage areas because robotic taxis cannot lose their network connection while driving. He also said Grok would manage the Optimus humanoid robot and that without Terafab, Tesla would have difficulty expanding production of the product.
Gene Munster raises merger probability
Gene Munster, managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management, wrote on X that the exchange changed his mind. He raised the probability of a merger in the next few years to 90% from the previous 80% and said he was surprised that executives responded to the question.
Timing is important because the quarter itself has nothing to celebrate for shareholders. Revenue rose 26% to $28.24 billion, but adjusted earnings per share of 33 cents were well below Wall Street expectations and operating profit fell to $398 million. Chief Financial Officer Waibaf Taneja said capital expenditures will exceed $25 billion this year and continue to grow, resulting in a deficit of about $1 billion in free cash flow.
SpaceX's ties with Tesla continue to deepen
Since Musk seriously integrated his companies, merger rumors have been with him. SpaceX absorbed xAI in February, valuing the combined entity at $1.25 trillion, and Tesla's $2 billion investment in the AI startup was converted into a small stake in SpaceX during the restructuring. The rocket maker then raised a record $75 billion in a June offering, but its share price has since fallen sharply from its peak.
Tesla's share price has fallen about 17% this year. Musk has played this trick before, absorbing SolarCity in 2016 and integrating X into xAI in 2025. Both deals have attracted criticism that he is sitting on both sides of the negotiating table.
