Solana (SOL) continues to disappoint investors in 2026, but online data and technical indicators have begun to send positive signals. Although SOL prices have fallen for the 10th consecutive month, growth in chain activity and technical patterns are, in the eyes of analysts, laying the foundation for a potential trend reversal. In particular, the movement of the SOL/BTC trading pair will become the key to judging Solana's direction in the coming months.
Solana closed negative for 10 consecutive months.
According to technical data, Solana closed with a decline of about 1.1% in July, falling for the 10th consecutive month. As a result, SOL has failed to achieve a strong monthly close since selling pressure began in October last year. During this period, long-term investors buying near $250 suffered significant losses, while analysts pointed out that the $60 level has become one of the most critical support areas in the long term.
Despite weak price performance, Solana Network's fundamentals remain positive. After the implementation of the SIMD-0286 upgrade, transaction fees have dropped significantly. Thanks to this upgrade, priority fees have been reduced from approximately 90% to 30%, while the network's data processing capabilities and capital efficiency have also improved. In addition, the Solana Network processed approximately 8.7 billion transactions in July, reaching its highest monthly transaction volume in the past four months, according to Token Terminal. These data suggest that user activity and network usage are strengthening again.
Analysts say historical patterns are repeating themselves
According to market analysts, Solana presents a similar technical structure to it before past bull cycles. In 2021, after a similar pattern, SOL rose by about 2500%, while in the 2023 cycle, there was a strong rebound of more than 3600%. Analysts believe that Solana's maintenance of key support over a higher time frame may lead to a similar scenario in the 2026-2027 cycle.
Experts believe that one of the most important indicators in the future will be the SOL/BTC exchange rate. Historically, August and September have been periods of relatively weak performance for Bitcoin. During such times, the possibility of investors 'funds turning to high-beta altcoins increases. The SOL/BTC exchange rate currently continues to trade below the key 0.002 level. Analysts believe a strong breakthrough in the region could mark the beginning of a broader upward trend in Solana.
Assessment
Although Solana prices are still technically on a downward trend, on-chain data and network development show significant improvement. The increase in trading volume, the positive impact of SIMD-0286 upgrade and historical technical patterns all reinforce the possibility of a possible trend reversal for SOL. Especially if Bitcoin weakens and money re-flows to the altcoin market, the SOL/BTC pair could be one of the most important catalysts for Solana's new uptrend.

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