Gray scale research: Cryptocurrencies can still develop without the CLARITY bill

Legislative delays will not prevent cryptocurrency core functions

Regulators from filling gaps and some activities may move overseas

Due to Senate scheduling and election politics, the CLARITY bill is unlikely to pass this year.

Even without new market structure legislation, demand for Bitcoin as a store of value remains stable.

Regulators such as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission are expected to fill legislative gaps by formulating rules related to tokenized securities.

If the United States lacks comprehensive cryptocurrency rules, investment and developer activities may shift overseas.

Zach Pandl, director of gray scale research, said that considering the Senate schedule and election-year politics, the CLARITY bill is unlikely to pass this year. Despite the legislative delay, he pointed out that the cryptocurrency market could still move forward without the bill. Bitcoin's role as a store of value and the growth of stablecoin payments are not expected to be affected. Regulators may fill the gap by creating rules.

Legislative delays will not hinder the core functions of cryptocurrencies

Pandl said it is "technically still possible" to reach an agreement on the CLARITY bill before the end of the year. But he pointed to the "reality of the Senate agenda" as a major obstacle.

Election-year politics have further exacerbated negotiating frictions around the bipartisan bill. Lawmakers continue to discuss, but the window for action narrows over time.

Pandl said the delay will not immediately affect the day-to-day operations of major blockchains. He noted that the industry "has been moving forward for nearly 17 years without such legislation."

Even without the new rules, demand for Bitcoin as a store of value is expected to remain stable. Regardless of the bill's outcome this year, the adoption of stablecoin payments should continue to expand.

The CLARITY Act aims to establish a complete rulebook for digital assets nationwide. It proposes a new path to capital formation through blockchain technology and tools.

Pandl called the legislation "a reasonable rulebook for the U.S. digital asset market similar to traditional finance." He described this year's stagnation of progress as a "missed opportunity" for the industry.

Even so, he insisted that the momentum for cryptocurrencies does not depend on the passage of the bill. Market participants are expected to continue building under existing rules.

Regulators fill gaps and some activities may move overseas

Pandl pointed out that the current administration has supported digital assets through multiple regulatory actions. He mentioned "new rules on institutional custody" and improved bank access for cryptocurrency companies.

In recent months, clear pledge policies have also emerged under existing regulatory authority. These steps have broadly driven the growth of cryptocurrency exchange-traded products.

Pandl expects the SEC and other agencies to "fill the gap through rulemaking" in the coming months. In this process, tokenized securities may receive particular regulatory attention.

He called the SEC's interpretative guidance on federal securities laws "a big step." It is expected that further institutional actions will be taken in the future to continue to advance on the basis of this supervision.

Even if the scope of rulemaking is expanded, incomplete market structure rules may still push activities overseas. Pandl said friendlier "token issuance rules, developer protection and other factors" have attracted overseas activity.

This overseas trend existed before the initial partial reversal of this administration. He said that without comprehensive domestic legislation, this model could re-emerge.

Pandl summarized the outlook and noted that cryptocurrencies "will move forward without the CLARITY Act" and will be driven by expected regulatory actions. Rulemaking provides partial alternatives, but it is not a complete alternative to comprehensive legislation.

He described the stagnation of the CLARITY bill as a setback rather than an obstacle. In his view, regardless of the outcome of this year's legislation, the broader growth trajectory of cryptocurrencies will remain unchanged.