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XRP XRP closed up 35% in August. Can it achieve a rise in September for the fifth consecutive year?
On the last day of August, XRP maintained its upward trend, trading close to $1.41, a 35% gain for the month. The performance challenges the widespread view that the token typically performs weakly in early autumn, as XRP has shown significant resilience and growth during this period in recent years.
Nine consecutive months of gains have broken the seasonal pattern
In the past four years, XRP has closed with positive returns in September every year. The asset has achieved gains of 46.2%, 0.42%, 7.98%, and 2.49% respectively for four consecutive years, showing a trend that is contrary to expectations of seasonal weakness typically seen in cryptocurrencies at this time.
Overall, the median return of XRP in September over the calendar year has turned positive (0.42%), and recent performance has further consolidated this trend. The late summer rally has left the market optimistic that the token is expected to extend its rally into September 2026.
XRP's repeated strength in September runs counter to the market's traditional view of its seasonal weakness, as it has gained early autumn for four consecutive years.
The U.S. Senate's Clear Bill vote is imminent
This fall, regulatory developments are expected to have a significant impact on market sentiment for XRP. On September 15, 2026, the U.S. Senate plans to vote on the Clarification Act. If the bill is passed, XRP would be officially classified as a commodity at the federal level, eliminating long-standing regulatory uncertainty faced by the token and its supporters.
The market generally believes that expectations of this vote are the main catalyst for XRP's recent rebound. In the first half of 2026, the token fell 27.1% in the first quarter and 22.4% in the second quarter, reflecting a deep market correction and investor sell-off.
Return to growth and capital inflows
The third quarter marked a shift in the fundamentals of XRP. As of the end of August, the token's total third-quarter return reached 37%, significantly higher than the historical quarterly median return of 27.9%. The shift suggests investor confidence is returning after a long period of selling pressure.
Quarterly return data:
First quarter 2026:-27.1%
Second quarter 2026:-22.4%
Third quarter 2026 (as of August):+37%
Historical third quarter median: +27.9%
Growing capital inflows also played a supporting role. In August alone, net inflows into spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) reached $127.34 million, bringing the cumulative net inflow to $1.64 billion. As of the end of the month, the assets under management of these funds reached US$1.49 billion.
The growing demand for regulated investment products during a period of regulatory uncertainty highlights the growing interest of institutions in the token.
Network Activity and Technology Milestones
The XRP ledger of the decentralized blockchain network supporting XRP ushered in a new milestone this week, with total transaction volume exceeding 5 billion. At the same time, developers have launched a security audit of version 1.1 of the XRPL lending protocol, indicating that use case expansion work within the ecosystem continues to advance.
(Note: The XRPL Lending Protocol is a decentralized protocol that allows users to borrow assets on the XRP ledger. It was developed by community contributors and aims to enhance the practicality of native blockchain assets without relying on centralized intermediaries.)
As technological momentum builds and potentially favorable regulatory news approaches, market observers are closely watching whether XRP can achieve its fifth consecutive year of September gains. A positive close this month will lay the foundation for further gains in the fourth quarter, the best period for XRP in history, with an average return of 133.3%.
If the current upward trend continues and the Senate approves the Clarity Act, analysts believe XRP is expected to extend its bullish momentum into the last quarter of the year.
