Cardiff's Canary: Three leaders test the British Alliance

Independent leaders of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are scheduled to hold a summit in Cardiff on September 14 to discuss cooperation in four policy areas, including the right to self-determination.

The three pro-independence regional chief ministers are scheduled to hold talks on Monday on topics covering self-determination, economic policy, energy and European relations. According to the Daily Telegraph, the leaders will sign an agreement, but its specific text has not yet been released.

Wales First Minister Rhun ap Iorwerth dismissed suggestions that the summit was aimed at the immediate disintegration of Britain. It should be pointed out that since constitutional matters remain reserved by the Westminster authorities, Scotland cannot hold a unilateral independence referendum. In Northern Ireland, the launch of a statutory referendum depends on a separate ruling by the British Northern Ireland Secretary.

Joint statement and lineup

The Daily Telegraph reported on September 13 that Scotland's First Minister John Swinney, Wales's First Minister Rune App Jowees and Northern Ireland's First Minister Michelle O'Neill will sign a joint declaration or memorandum of understanding. In addition, Mary Lou McDonald, Chairman of the Irish Republican Party and Leader of the Opposition in the Irish House of Representatives, is expected to attend the meeting at the St. David's Hotel in Cardiff Bay. A press conference will be held after the talks.

It is reported that the agreement covers four areas: economy, energy, European relations and national self-determination. As of September 13, neither the autonomous government nor all participating parties had made public the full text.

Apu Jowes denied accusations that the gathering was aimed at dismantling Britain. In an interview with the Guardian before the summit, he said his cooperation with other nationalist parties was not "to divide Britain." "I want to build my country," the Welsh Party leader said. He emphasized that Welsh independence is the ultimate goal of a constitutional process, but the choice lies with the voters and there is no fixed timetable.

Summit focuses on four common areas

The proposed memorandum of understanding is expected to commit the Scottish National Party (SNP), the Welsh Party (Plaid Cymru) and the Republican Party of Ireland (Sinn Féin) to cooperate in areas of policy overlap. Due to the different legal and political status of countries, the constitutional outcomes supported by political parties vary.

On economic policy, all parties are expected to argue that the current British model has failed to benefit the three self-governing countries. According to the Daily Telegraph, the parties will discuss changes to tax and spending powers, energy resources and the way public funds are allocated.

The Welsh Party wants the British government to transfer more fiscal power to Wales. The demands include income from Crown Estate Welsh assets, such as undersea leases for offshore wind projects. The party also advocates the decentralization of policing and judicial powers to Cardiff. App Jowes pointed out that during his tenure as mayor of Greater Manchester, Prime Minister Andy Burnham had more influence on policing than the powers held by the current Chief Minister of Wales.

A Wales Party source described cooperation on energy, economy and European issues as a pragmatic exercise between parties with common interests. The source said all parties could operate "as partners and equal partners" without having to treat all policy issues as part of an immediate independence movement.

Independent voting follows different legal paths

Unless the legal framework changes, Scotland's constitutional path remains controlled by Westminster. In a 2022 ruling by the British Supreme Court, the court ruled that the Scottish Parliament could not unilaterally legislate to hold an independence referendum because the proposed vote involved reservations. The 2014 Scottish referendum was held after the British and Scottish governments agreed to temporarily transfer the required powers through a Section 30 Order. An equivalent authority has not yet been granted for another vote.

Burnham said he would consider holding another Scottish referendum if there was a "clear consensus" to support it. However, his government has not yet defined the electoral, voter or parliamentary conditions needed to build such a consensus. In a letter to Swinney, the prime minister insisted that another Scottish vote was a "off-limits" before the next general election. Burnham cited Labour's 2024 campaign platform, which opposed Scottish independence and another referendum.

Under the Belfast Agreement of 1998 and the Northern Ireland Act, Northern Ireland has a separate legal avenue. The law stipulates that a border referendum must be called if Northern Ireland ministers believe that a majority of voters may vote to leave the UK and join a united Ireland. There are currently no public government decisions that determine that the statutory test standards have been met. The Irish Republican Party believes preparations for the referendum should now begin, while the British government says there is currently no clear basis that a majority of Northern Ireland voters currently support unification.

Wales does not have a similar statutory mechanism to hold an independence referendum. Any binding process would require an agreement with Westminster or new legislation establishing the authority and terms of the vote.

Welsh leaders reject the framework of "immediate dissolution"

In the May 2026 Welsh Assembly election, the Welsh Party became the largest political party, making App Joweis the first minister. The result ended the Labor Party's history of holding the record for the largest party in every Welsh Assembly election since devolution. In the expanded 96-member Welsh Parliament, the Welsh Party holds 43 seats and the Reform Party becomes the main opposition party with 34 seats, tying constitutional issues with disputes over public spending, policing and economic policy.

In Scotland, despite losing six seats, the Scottish National Party retains power in the 2026 Holyrood election. Swinney then promoted cooperation between the three nationalist-led administrative agencies. "For the first time ever, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are all led by pro-independence chief ministers," Swinney said ahead of the Cardiff meeting. He believes the arrangement proves that the existing system is "unsustainable" and represents the SNP's political stance rather than established constitutional conclusions.

Northern Ireland's power-sharing system puts O'Neill in a joint leadership structure with the Deputy Chief Minister. Decisions that normally require authorization from the Northern Ireland Executive cannot generally be made by the Chief Minister alone. The Daily Telegraph report refers to participating in cooperation between political parties, but the unpublished agreement will determine whether any commitments are at the government or political level.

Reform Party's funding sources raise new political issues

The Cardiff meeting comes as the Reform Party is expanding its financial resources in the UK. Related reports show that two cryptocurrency billionaires provided £ 72 million to the British Reform Party through matching donations announced within 24 hours. Tether and Bitfinex investor Christopher Harborne and BitMEX co-founder Ben Delo each donated £ 36 million. Neither donation was confirmed as a cryptocurrency payment. The Reform Party said both donations were in compliance with current laws.

At the same time, the British government is separately promoting a ban on the use of cryptocurrencies for political donations and setting a cap of £ 100,000 a year for eligible overseas voters. The proposed restrictions will not apply just because donors make money in the cryptocurrency industry. It has been reported that lawmakers have requested a moratorium on political donations to cryptocurrencies until stronger source verification rules are introduced.

App Jowes said the Welsh Party could work with Labour to prevent the Reform Party from entering government. He expressed this position as an opposition to the Reform Party's political philosophy, while acknowledging the party's strong performance in the Welsh election.

The chief ministers are scheduled to hold the Cardiff talks on September 14 and address reporters after the meeting. The release of the memorandum of understanding will establish its final wording, signatories, and whether its commitments apply to political parties or their respective autonomous governments.