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ETH 核心要点
立法失败的原因
周二，参议院以49比50的票数否决了《CLARITY法案》，该票数远低于所需的60票绝对多数门槛。如果该法案通过，美国将建立首个全面管理数字资产的联邦框架。
SEC主席保罗·阿特金斯（Paul Atkins）承诺，无论国会是否采取行动，都将利用现有的法定权力采取“果断”行动。CFTC（美国商品期货交易委员会）的迈克·塞利格（Mike Selig）表示，其机构已准备就绪，“随时可以推出新金融前沿的规则”。
Bernstein的市场分析师预测，这两个监管机构将采取“积极且迅速”的行动。摩根大通警告称，由机构制定的法规缺乏国会立法的永久性，并可能面临法律挑战。
立法失败背后的原因
民主党议员主要因对特朗普总统参与加密货币业务的担忧以及提案中特定条款的道德问题而投下反对票。当共和党人拒绝民主党的反提议时，两党妥协的前景随之破灭。
一位共和党参议员工作人员告诉媒体，该法案似乎已“生来即死”。尽管参议员汤姆·蒂利斯（Thom Tillis）对未来的复苏保持乐观，但Bernstein的分析团队认为，鉴于11月选举周期前的时间紧迫，再次投票的可能性微乎其微。
According to Bernstein, the legislative failure eliminated what they called a "foolproof" safeguard protecting the cryptocurrency industry from policy reversals driven by future political changes.
Expected regulatory framework
Bernstein analysts detailed the regulatory actions expected by federal agencies in a research note on Wednesday. Their forecasts include classification guidance for token issuance during capital formation, protections for developers of decentralized financial platforms and self-custody agreements, and exemption clauses designed to encourage innovation in the tokenized stock market.
Other expected measures include accelerated approval of perpetual contracts based on real-world assets and changes to federal sports betting market regulations.
The SEC took steps in this direction on August 19, announcing proposed regulations aimed at establishing a "clear and applicable" framework for governing cryptocurrency investment contracts.
Under these proposed guidelines, companies can issue tokens worth up to US$5 million in four years, or up to US$75 million in 12 months. The safe harbor mechanism will provide exemptions for certain cryptocurrencies to prevent them from being classified as investment contracts.
Atkins has previously revealed this regulatory thinking. In an interview with CNBC on July 27, he said that the SEC was "ready, willing and able to introduce rules" if the Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act.
摩根大通的研发团队也同意两个机构可能会迅速行动，但他们强调，与立法行动相比，机构颁布的法规具有更大的脆弱性。后续政府有权撤销这些法规，且它们仍容易受到司法挑战。
至此，美国的加密货币监管轨迹已从国会山转向联邦监管机构，至少在可预见的未来是这样。
