Ethereum institutional demand deviates from the downward trend of prices

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Ethereum institutional demand deviates from the downward trend of prices

Bitmine currently holds 5.77 million ETH units, accounting for 4.8% of the total circulation. BlackRock and JPMorgan Chase both directly settle shares of tokenized treasury bonds funds on Ethereum. As Solana and BNB Chain grow faster, Ethereum's share of the tokenized asset market has slipped to about half. ETH is testing a combination of Fibonacci, EMA9 and channel support at around $1833 and the RSI is recovering from oversold territory.

On Friday afternoon, Ethereum traded at around $1832, down 2.36% in 24 hours, and its market value was close to $221 billion. The sell-off in Asian semiconductor stocks spread to stock index futures, dragging cryptocurrencies lower. Earlier this week, finance company Bitmine Immersion Technologies, chaired by Fundstrat's Tom Lee, disclosed that its ETH holdings had increased to 5.77 million units, accounting for 4.8% of total supply, while BlackRock and JPMorgan Chase have both expanded tokenized fund products that settle directly on Ethereum. Spot prices and institutional positions have shown opposite directions this week, and this gap is more telling than the daily chart.

The sell-off of chip stocks causes Ethereum to fall twice as much as Bitcoin

Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both issued performance guidance that fell short of expectations, even though Samsung reported record quarterly profits, a gap that shook the semiconductor sector, which had previously gained nearly 90% in the previous quarter due to an AI spending boom. Nasdaq 100 futures fell nearly 2% today as selling surged across the Pacific. Bitcoin fell about 1.2% to $63000. Ethereum's decline is about twice that of Bitcoin, indicating that its current narrative is closely tied to AI infrastructure sentiment. Despite falling token prices, the U.S. spot Ethereum ETF attracted nearly $97 million in net inflows this week, most of which went to BlackRock's funds.

Technical Analysis: Key Levels on the 30-minute Chart

On the Binance ETH/USDT 30-minute Chart, the ETH trading price is close to US$1833, a correction of about 5.8% from the July 15 high of US$1,946.62, and has fallen for two consecutive days within a clear downward channel. Currently, three technical reference indicators are concentrated in the same narrow range: Fibonacci level, EMA9 and lower edge of the channel. This convergence usually leads to a decisive rebound or clear break, rather than continued consolidation.

The 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level from the July 13 low to the July 15 high is at $1,836.67, and prices have been touched many times but have not closed at it. The EMA9 has been well above current prices during the decline and is now almost flat at current prices, the first time the moving average has truly faced a test of turning from resistance to support. The RSI has recovered to 47.51 after falling near 20 on July 16, with its signal line at 40.45 and the fast line crossing the slow line for the first time since the sell-off began. These signals themselves do not confirm reversal, but the three signals overlap in the same area, so it is worth paying attention to the performance of the next few K lines.

Resistance ▲ US$1,874.66 (0.5 Fibonacci, secondary upside target)
Resistance ▲ $1,857.68 (0.382 Fibonacci, first target after recovery)
In testing ● $1,836.67 (0.236 Fibonacci, key convergence level)
EMA9 ● Approximately US$1,829.60 (resistance to support test)
Support level ○ US$1,802.70 (0 Fibonacci anchor point, downside reference)
Structural support ○ US$1,792 - 1,800 (lower boundary of the channel)

Bitmine's reserves continue to grow despite prices

Bitmine disclosed on July 12 that its cryptocurrency and cash holdings reached US$11.3 billion, including 5,770,038 ETH. Its chairman's speech in July stated that this position accounted for 4.8% of Ethereum's supply and had achieved 96% of its goal of holding 5% of all ETH within 12 months. About 85% of the positions (nearly 4.9 million ETH) have been pledged through Bitmine's own MAVAN verifier platform, and the annualized pledge revenue is expected to exceed US$240 million. This means that the reserve can receive an underlying asset return independent of the ETH spot price.

BlackRock and JPMorgan Chase settle real funds on Ethereum

BlackRock's tokenized fund products led by BUIDL hold US$2.93 billion in chain assets on eight blockchains, of which approximately US$1.1 billion is dedicated to Ethereum. Moody's awarded BUIDL the highest AAA-mf rating earlier this year, a standard typically required by institutional allocators. JPMorgan launched its first Ethereum fund MONY with US$100 million in seed funding in December 2025, and subsequently launched JLTXX exclusively on Ethereum in May 2026 through its Kinexys digital assets division. The fund is designed so that its shares can be used as a stablecoin issuer compliance with the GENIUS Act. JLTXX's assets under management increased by approximately 250% in one month to nearly US$700 million. This institutional trust also extends to the code itself: Electric Capital data shows that there are still nearly 6000 monthly active developers building on the Ethereum compatibility chain, the largest of any network.

Ethereum's dominant position in the tokenization market is loosening

The real threat to Ethereum's institutional narrative comes from competition from the next level. According to RWA.xyz data, its share of the traceable real-world asset market has dropped from about two-thirds in January to about half in mid-July, although its absolute holdings of about $16.3 billion still far exceed any single competitor. Solana's tokenization value has almost tripled since January, attracting the largest 30-day net inflow of any chain, while Ethereum's net outflow over the same period was approximately $202 million.

Ethereum: US$16.3 billion
BNB Chain: US$3.9 billion
Solana: US$3.6 billion (a three-fold increase since January)

What happens next

Robinhood Chain launched on Arbitrum on July 1, with trading volume exceeding US$1 billion in the first week and will still settle back to Ethereum, although the ARB captured most of the short-term price reactions. Robinhood will bear the 90-day fee for the chain, and the subsidy will expire at the end of September, which will be the first real test of whether the trading volume can be independently maintained. The Glamstam upgrade later this year aims to expand Ethereum's capacity while not touching the core security model. There are three things to pay attention to in the coming months: whether Bitmine will break the 5% supply threshold, whether Ethereum's RWA share will stabilize above 50%, and whether the US$1,836.67 will truly be held in the short term.