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BTC Behind the fluctuations in Bitcoin ETF fund flows: Institutional risk appetite changes
Recently, although the capital inflow of US spot Bitcoin ETF has fluctuated violently, the risk-taking methods of institutional investors are also quietly changing. According to analysis, net inflows and outflows of ETFs no longer fully reflect institutional demand, because large investors not only have direct access to Bitcoin through ETFs, but also enter the market through channels such as income-sharing funds, secured loans and structured debt products. This new structure creates an invisible wall of liquidation when markets fall.
A New Era of Corporate Capital Flows
Data shows that from July 14 to 22, the net inflow of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF was approximately US$999 million, followed by a net outflow of US$526 million in the following four days. Since the end of May, the cumulative net outflow has reached US$4.46 billion. However, since the launch of the ETF, total net inflows remain at US$51.4 billion. However, these flows now represent only part of it, as institutional investors turn to alternatives such as options products and bitcoin-backed loans. BlackRock's IBIT ETF net inflow reached US$60.3 billion, while the iShares Bitcoin Premium Income ETF (BITA) launched in June has assets of US$59.9 million.
Clearing Wall: US$39,900 mark
Corporate loans have grown significantly: In the first quarter of 2026, the size of cryptocurrency-guaranteed loans increased to US$67 billion. However, the level of liquidation of these loans introduced new risks to the market. For example, a loan with an initial mortgage ratio of 50%, and a liquidation threshold of 80%, will trigger a forced sell order when the Bitcoin price falls 37.5%(or to approximately $39,900). The increase in such loan positions amplifies the risk of chain liquidations if prices suddenly fall. Ledn CEO Adam Ritz highlighted this risk, saying: "As leverage increases, clearing thresholds for different positions have led to a surge in forced sell orders."
Balance of credit and ETFs in market dynamics
Although ETF flows reflect rapid capital movements in the market, risks accumulated in options and loan products may emerge later. In particular, loan mortgage ratios and liquidation levels may have an unexpected impact on the market when prices fluctuate significantly. The upcoming major correction in Bitcoin will test the ability and resilience of loans and income products to bring capital to the market.
