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Following
BTC The same chart starts circulating every time a large cryptocurrency exchange closes during a bear market.
Marking the exchange's logo at bitcoin price lows suggests a clear pattern: When the platform crashes, the bottom is close to your eyes. This is an eye-catching visual presentation. However, according to analyst Joao Wedson, actual data does not support this view.
Wedson posted an analysis on X that debunked what he called "recurring FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt) disguised as market analysis." His data tracks recorded cryptocurrency exchange and platform closures in each of the past eight years, covering closures due to bankruptcy, regulation, liquidity crises, hacking, fraud, and pure business decisions.
Data actually shows
As of 2026, nine cryptocurrency exchanges and trading platforms have announced or completed closures. This is the lowest number recorded in at least eight years, and is well below the number seen during the 2022 bear market cycle, when dozens of platforms failed after the Terra Luna crash and FTX bankruptcy.
BitMart announced its closure on July 26. BitMEX has confirmed that it will be permanently closed on September 23. The two closures occurred just a few days apart and sparked a lot of discussion in the market about bitcoin price movements signals.
Wedson's point is straightforward: When the total number of closures throughout the year is at a historically low level, two high-profile closures do not constitute a trend. The visual model of placing the exchange logo at the bottom of the market selects only those impressive failures and ignores those periods when multiple closures occurred over the years but were far from reaching the bottom.
Why this narrative persists
Exchange closures are events that easily resonate emotionally. They create headlines, spark fear, and provide analysts with specific targets to refer to. This emotional weight is why they become an effective narrative anchor-whether or not the supporting data supports the conclusions drawn.
Bitcoin is currently trading at close to US$64,000. It is a fact that nine exchanges will be closed in 2026. Whether this fact means that the bottom has been reached is a completely different question, and according to Wedson, the data does not give the answers that the narrative suggests.
