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FollowingTLDR
JPMorgan warned that a declining probability of passage of the Clarification Act could weaken the prospects of the crypto market. Forecast markets show a 37% probability of the bill passing the Senate before the end of the year. The current negotiations on decentralized finance, stable currency earnings, ethics, law enforcement powers and anti-money laundering rules are still deadlocked. The bill would divide the regulatory authority for digital assets to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. JPMorgan said regulatory clarity could encourage banks, exchanges, custodians and asset managers to enter the crypto market.
JPMorgan: The reduced probability of the Clear Act being passed this year may put pressure on the prospects of the crypto market.
JPMorgan warned that the reduced probability of the Clear Act being passed this year may put pressure on the prospects of the crypto market. The forecast market currently believes that the bill has a 37% probability of being approved by the Senate before the end of the year. The bank said the delay eliminated a key regulatory catalyst in the digital asset space. Senate lawmakers have placed other bills ahead of the proposal before the summer recess.
Clarification Act faces Senate extension
Negotiations around ethics, law enforcement powers, decentralized finance, stablecoin earnings and anti-money laundering standards remain stalled. Despite previous support for clearer rules for digital assets, these issues have slowed progress. Analysts at JPMorgan said a longer delay could shift blockchain growth towards the existing financial system. If tokenization develops mainly within traditional market infrastructure, public cryptographic networks may lose their vitality.
The Clarification Act would divide regulatory powers to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, while establishing clearer rules for exchanges, brokers, custodians, and decentralized projects. Proponents believe the bill could create more certainty for banks, asset managers and market makers. Clearer rules could support new product development and increase trading activity on regulated U.S. platforms.
JPMorgan notes institutional risks in the Clarification Act
JPMorgan said the proposal could lower barriers to entry for large financial institutions and could also give institutions more confidence to invest in digital assets and build blockchain-based services. Some trends are already beginning to emerge. The bank cited Citadel Securities '$400 million investment in Crypto.com and the approval of the first regulated perpetual crypto futures contract in the United States.
JPMorgan also warned that parts of the draft could inhibit institutional participation. Some tokenized securities and derivatives may be traded outside of direct regulation by the SEC or CFTC. The bank also questioned whether anti-money laundering rules matched standards adopted by traditional financial institutions. Jeffery also warned that the Clarification Act still faces major obstacles after it is passed by the Senate Banking Committee.
