Experts warn: Quantum computing may threaten Bitcoin and stablecoins by 2028

Quantum computers threaten blockchain security: Experts warn that 2028 may be a turning point

The possibility of quantum computers cracking existing cryptographic defenses is causing deep concerns among blockchain security experts. Analysts believe that the first sign of a quantum attack may not be a large-scale theft, but a series of unexplained simultaneous intrusions into multiple cryptocurrency wallets.

Quantum Computers and Blockchain Security

Christopher Smith, CEO and co-founder of Quantus Network, warned that a sufficiently advanced quantum computer can derive private keys from public keys exposed on the blockchain network. This ability will allow attackers to move funds without having to hack into wallets, devices or exchange infrastructure. Smith pointed out that in this case, it would be impossible to detect how the intrusion occurred: the only thing that could be seen was the fact that the funds had been withdrawn.

His warning stems from significant advances in quantum algorithms-recent research has reduced the estimated computing resources required to attack elliptic curve encryption, a security mechanism commonly used in mainstream blockchains.

Quantum computing is a new computing paradigm that uses qubits to solve specific problems at speeds far exceeding classical computers.

Small Dictionary: Elliptic curve encryption is a data encryption method that relies on the mathematical principles of elliptic curves. It is widely used due to its efficiency in protecting digital transactions and communications.

Potential quantum attack targets in cryptocurrencies

Although the crypto community's main concerns focus on Satoshi Nakamoto's unused $63 billion worth of Bitcoin, Smith believes that more attractive targets may exist elsewhere. He specifically pointed out that the management keys of multi-chain stablecoins such as Tether's USDT are extremely valuable. Smith said that if such managed wallets were successfully attacked by a quantum attack, malicious actors would be able to quickly mint new tokens and flood the market before issuers could respond.

Tether, the company behind USDT, manages the world's largest stablecoin, which runs on multiple blockchains. Some of these networks have begun to take initial steps to prepare for the post-quantum cryptography era.

Sean Cheetham, a security researcher from Blockchain Capital, predicts that attackers could avoid high-profile targets and instead quietly access exchanges '"hot wallets"-wallets that routinely process user funds and are often associated with public keys.

Smith emphasized that attackers could disguise quantum theft as a routine intrusion, such as using reasons such as "key loss" as alternative explanations, thus delaying discovery time.

Cheetham explained that such incidents would appear very common on the outside because with current investigative techniques, the real means of intrusion would be invisible.

The timeline of quantum risk

Recent advances in artificial intelligence are accelerating the potential impact of quantum computing. In March this year, Google advanced its subsequent quantum migration plans to 2029, after an artificial intelligence-assisted breakthrough showed that the number of qubits needed to crack elliptic curve encryption may be less than previously expected.

Roy Blackstone, CEO of cryptocurrency security company NGRAVE, commented that early quantum risk assessments did not expect such rapid progress in artificial intelligence and quantum algorithm research.

Despite these advances, predictions about when quantum computers will be able to crack cryptographic protections remain highly uncertain. Smith, head of the Quantus Network, said that at the current research pace, the probability of achieving this milestone by 2028 is "50-50".

Cheetham predicts that the technology is almost certain to be available in the early 2030s, although he acknowledges that the possibility of an earlier breakthrough still exists. Michael Coates, chief information security officer of the Solana Foundation, declined to give a specific timeline, saying uncertainty still exists and the timetable is constantly changing.

Blackstone pointed out that despite differences over timing, major blockchain networks are already preparing for post-quantum migration. He warned that failure to act in time could have disastrous consequences.