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BTC Bitcoin News
Matt Hogan has a number in mind: By 2035, each Bitcoin (BTC) will reach US$1.3 million. The chief investment officer of Bitwise Asset Management stated his views in an email interview on August 8, and the starting point for the calculation supporting this number is not cryptocurrency, but gold.
Since the launch of the gold ETF in 2004, the market value of gold has increased from approximately US$2 trillion to approximately US$30 trillion today, with an annualized growth rate of approximately 13%. Hogan said that if the value store market continues to expand at this rate over the next decade and Bitcoin accounts for 25% of it, each Bitcoin will be worth approximately $1.3 million. He said: "When people evaluate Bitcoin, they often compare it to gold in the 'store of value'. They might say: Gold is a $30 trillion asset. If bitcoin could occupy 50% of the market, each bitcoin would be worth $715,000."
Trillions of dollars in institutional assets remain on the sidelines
Hogan said the capital needed to achieve these prices is there. Globally, institutions including foundations, endowments, pension plans, insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds and central banks control approximately $100 trillion to $200 trillion in assets. He said that as long as 1% of those pools were allocated, it would be enough to support his long-term price target.
Hogan pointed out that this transformation has already begun. Financial advisers and family offices are pioneers. The evidence can be seen from the 13F documents of the spot Bitcoin ETF and the decisions of companies such as Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo to expand their customers 'investment channels in BTC. Larger agencies will follow suit, but it will take time. "This will be a process that will last more than 10 years," Hogan said. Most of the world's wealth is in the hands of institutions. Cryptocurrency originated from retail investors, which has helped it grow from zero to US$2 trillion. But if you want to jump from $2 trillion to $20 trillion, it will be institutional capital that will lead the trend."
Microstrategy's structural advantages have basically disappeared
Microstrategy holds 842,138 bitcoins and is the world's largest holder of corporate bitcoins. However, Hogan said it will not become a major driver of future bitcoin demand. The company used two capital market conditions to build its positions, but those conditions are no longer as strong.
MicroStrategy's shares were once one of the few public alternatives to cryptocurrency investment on the market, allowing the company to issue shares at a price higher than the actual value of its Bitcoin holdings. It also uses convertible bond and preferred stock issues to raise additional capital for purchases. Hogan said both conditions had been weakened. Spot ETFs now provide investors with a way to invest directly in Bitcoin, reducing the premium space available to microstrategies.
In addition, the company has issued the largest amount of debt the market can support under its current capital structure. "The avenues for easy accumulation have been exhausted," Hogan said. He added that MicroStrategy will continue to buy Bitcoin, but at a slower pace and more tied to price levels during the market cycle. For long-term investors, Hogan believes the key issue is not a short-term price floor. "The better question is whether the top has arrived." he said.
