World Gold Council's Bitcoin zeroing forecast is tested, prices hold steady near $63,000

Bitcoin prices approach US$63,000, World Gold Council's collapse predictions face test

Bitcoin has once again become the focus after its recent decline, when its price was close to US$63,000. This has renewed attention to the previously outspoken prediction of David Tait, chief executive of the World Gold Council, that Bitcoin could eventually fall to zero. The agency Tate leads represents the interests of the global gold mining and investment industry. In May of this year, when Bitcoin was trading at around $77,500, he made his point. Since then, the asset's price has fallen about 19% from that level, although it is still a long way from the collapse he predicted.

Institutional Views and Markets Comparison

Tate's assertion is not based on formal valuation methods. Instead, he explained that the zero-price target stems from a trader's intuition based on doubts about Bitcoin's role as a hedging tool. He believes that contrary to its term of "digital gold", Bitcoin has not continued to protect investors during periods of market pressure. He also questioned whether Bitcoin could become a reliable safe-haven asset. Although Bitcoin's correlation with stocks such as the S & P 500 has increased since the launch of the U.S. spot ETF, its correlation with gold remains negligible. This shift suggests that Bitcoin is more like a risk-sensitive asset than a direct competitor to traditional safe-haven assets such as gold.

A 2025 research report pointed out that after the launch of the spot Bitcoin ETF, the asset's correlation with the S & P 500 index increased, further fueling debate about its safe-haven nature. During the same period, gold prices hit a new high, trading above $4,400 an ounce.

(Note: The World Gold Council is a market development organization that represents the interests of the global gold industry and is committed to providing research and advocacy for gold as an investment and monetary reserve.)

In the second quarter of this year, central banks purchased a net 289 tons of gold, an increase of 62% over the same period last year. Total demand in the first half of the year reached 2,522 tons, setting a historical record worth US$380 billion.

Bitcoin's current performance puts it well below the peak agency forecasts, but also far from reaching the zero-value scenario described by David Tate. The current price of around $63,000 does not confirm any extreme view, despite persistent volatility and changing investor sentiment.

Assets| Recent prices/targets| previously predicted| Key Institutions Outlook
Bitcoin| US$63,038| US$77,500 (May 2026)| Zero (Tate); US$100,000 (Standard Chartered Bank, TD Cowen); US$82,000 (Citigroup)
Gold| US$4,400/oz| US$3,800/ounce (average price in 2025)| Central bank demand increases 62% year-on-year

Wall Street lowers Bitcoin expectations

Major financial institutions recently lowered their bitcoin price forecasts. Citibank lowered its 12-month price target to $82,000 from $112,000 in July, citing outflows from spot ETFs, weak investor demand and limited progress in U.S. cryptocurrency regulation. The bank's pessimistic scenario for Bitcoin is set at $53,000. Standard Chartered Bank and TD Cowen have also adjusted their forecasts and both currently forecast prices of US$100,000 by the end of 2026, lower than the previously set targets of US$150,000 and US$140,000 respectively. These revised forecasts are more in line with the current market environment-Bitcoin has been trading in a relatively narrow range of around $63,000 to $66,000 for several weeks.

Despite these downgrades, large institutional investors still have regulated avenues to participate. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust Fund, as the leading spot Bitcoin ETF, had a net return for the year of-27.57% as of August 13, reflecting the overall weakness of the sector.

Current market conditions pose challenges to both ends of the forecast spectrum. Bitcoin prices are well below the ambitious targets set by Wall Street earlier in the cycle, but they are also far from reaching the point of collapsing to zero. The buying of ETFs competed with the selling of bitcoin miners and corporate treasuries, creating a market dynamic that kept prices from recovering back to previous highs, but well above levels seen as the bottom line of potential risk.

At its current price level of $63,038, Bitcoin provides a key reference for the ongoing debate over its direction. Although volatility and revised price targets have reshaped market sentiment, evidence suggests that neither an immediate return to zero nor a rebound to previous institutional highs will happen anytime soon.