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XRP XRP struggles at US$1 level, futures data reveals differences in long and short positions
When XRP attempts to hold on to US$1 level, futures market data presents different aspects of investor positions. The actual situation is far more complicated than the long-short ratio.
As XRP waged a tug-of-war around US$1, there were significant differences in position data in the futures market. CoinGlass shows that the open interest in XRP futures is approximately US$2.7 billion, while data from some tracking platforms remains between US$866 million and US$1 billion.
This difference does not mean that the market has been mismeasured. Different platforms include different exchanges and contract types, resulting in data differentiation.
Why are there differences in XRP long and short data?
The real confusion between data lies in the way long and short positions are calculated. In XRP futures trading, approximately 75% of accounts hold long positions and 25% hold short positions. But this does not mean that 75% of the market's funds are concentrated in long positions.
In futures trading, every long position is backed by a short position of equal size. For example, if three investors each place orders of more than $100, the long side totals $300; and one corresponding investor may hold a short order of $300. Although 75% of accounts are long positions, the positions on both sides are still equal.
Therefore, a long-short ratio based on the number of accounts should not be confused with the size of a position based on the dollar.
Is selling pressure on XRP increasing?
Unlike the distribution of positions, active trading volume shows that seller power has become stronger in the near future. In the past 24 hours of active trading, purchases accounted for approximately 45%, and sales accounted for approximately 55%. This pattern suggests that selling pressure dominates the price fluctuations of XRP around US$1.
Trader ChartNerd's previously announced 51.5% long and 48.5% short distribution also caused controversy. XRP Ledger developer Bird pointed out that these data are inconsistent with other active trading data. ChartNerd then recalculated, saying long volume in the past 24 hours was approximately $304 million, while short volume was approximately $375 million.
The difference here stems from the difference in measurement objects: open interest, account ratio and active volume are not the same concept.
Has XRP reached the bottom when falling below 1 US dollar?
What will happen if XRP falls below US$1?
XRP fell below the US$1 mark, which may increase the risk of leveraged long positions. If prices break downward, some long positions are liquidated, which may trigger new selling pressure. On the contrary, if XRP rebounds strongly above US$1, it may lead to the closing of short positions and accelerating buying.
As a result, the current situation shows a two-way squeeze: long positions tend to become crowded, while short bets are also strengthening.
Binance XRP futures positions continue to grow
CryptoQuant data shows that the Binance platform has also undergone significant changes. In the past two weeks, XRP's open interest in Binance has increased by 28.6% to US$232.7 million. During the same period, the net margin in cumulative transaction volume of perpetual contracts fell to minus US$463 million.
This divergence suggests that the market may have added short positions. Spot market capital flows showed a similar pattern: net flows turned from positive US$153 million to negative US$231.8 million.
Therefore, in the trend of XRP, we must not only pay attention to prices, but also simultaneously observe the leverage level and spot fund flow in the futures market.
XRP fluctuations around US$1 are therefore more than just a battle for support. Due to concentration of positions, increased selling pressure and an increase in open interest, the US$1 mark is becoming a key threshold in the futures market.
The content of this article is based on general market data and does not constitute investment advice. It is recommended that you conduct your own research and analysis.
