VanEck Bitcoin Analysis: In which month will the bottom appear?

Bitcoin has been moving in uncertainty in recent weeks, and VanEck's latest analysis provides clues as to the market's possible bottoming out. The asset manager pointed out that eight of the 12 surrender indicators it tracks are still active, a sign that Bitcoin may be close to the bottom. However, the company specifically emphasized that these signals do not guarantee strong returns in the short term.

Why is Bitcoin so stuck?

Bitcoin closed at US$63549 on August 11, a monthly decline of only 0.3%. Over the past 30 days, prices have fluctuated between $62265 and $66509, and the 30-day real volatility (annualized) has dropped to 27.2%. Van Eck pointed out that the average long-term volatility is about 80%, so current price volatility is abnormally low for Bitcoin. The company believes that this calm may mean that the downtrend that began in spring has stopped, and estimates that a bottom may have formed around $58500 around June 30.

Bitcoin is currently 9% below the 200-day moving average ($69884), compared with 14% a month ago. In addition, Bitcoin's trading price is about 49% lower than its historical high.

Why is ETF capital inflows important?

In the past 30 days, the net inflow of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has been approximately US$663 million, or approximately 10400 bitcoins at current prices. In the previous 30-day cycle, there was a net outflow of approximately 40010 bitcoins (approximately US$2.4 billion). Despite this, spot trading volume remained weak, with total trading volume falling 27% month-on-month on the 30th to the 10th percentile of the historical distribution. Van Eck said that trading volume in the summer of 2026 is close to the level of the bear market in 2023.

What do the 8 surrender signals mean?

All of the 12 surrender indicators tracked by Van Eyck have been triggered at least once in the past three months, and 8 of them are still activated. The company believes that a 35% or more drop in Bitcoin from its high is enough to meet the criterion for price surrender; without this criterion, the number of active signals would be seven. In previous bear markets, declines from high to low ranged from 78% to 94%. However, Van Eck expects declines to be more limited during the current cycle due to spot bitcoin ETFs, a broader institutional investor base, and the absence of major crashes such as those of Celsius, Three Arrows Capital and FTX.

About 10 months have passed since the October 2025 high. In historical cycles, it takes an average of 11 months to reach the largest decline from a high point, but if 2011 is excluded, the average of the most recent three cycles has been extended to 12.7 months. Therefore, potential bottom areas may form between September and November 2026.

What do Bitcoin options and futures reveal?

In the bitcoin options market, investors appear to have taken defensive positions. Total royalties increased 21% to $789.3 million, with put options premiums soaring 42% to $551.8 million, while call options premiums falling 10% to $237.6 million, and the put/call ratio rose to 2.30, reaching the 99th percentile since 2021.

In the futures market, funds rates have returned to positive, but the annualized interest rate is 4.7%, below the long-term average of 8.4%. Open interest increased 4.5% to $30.7 billion, while liquidation volume fell to its lowest level in recent months, with long liquidations of $510 million and short liquidations of $470 million.

Are long-term investors ready to sell?

The number of bitcoins that have not been moved for more than a year fell by 356,000 in 30 days to 11.84 million. Among them, the number of people holding for 1-2 years decreased by 156,000, the number of people holding for 2-3 years decreased by 76,000, and the number of people holding for 3-5 years decreased by about 62,000. The number of bitcoins that have not been moved for more than 10 years has only decreased by 4000.

This liquidity may put selling pressure on it, but Van Eck warns that not all transfers of old bitcoins are for sale on exchanges. Historical data shows that when 8-12 surrender signals are active, the 90-day average return is 12.8%, and the 180-day return is 32%, while the overall average is 15.2% and 36.3%, respectively. Over the one-year time frame, Bitcoin purchases during the surrender period outperformed overall performance.

Van Eck pointed out that the data were based on a small and overlapping sample. Therefore, the current chart is not an accurate point of bottoming out, but should be regarded as a signal that Bitcoin may be approaching the recruiting stage.

The content of this article is in no way investment advice. There are high risks in the market, so please study it yourself before making an investment decision.