When the market value of Ripple reaches US$500 billion, what is the value of XRP? The answer may be unexpected.
Ripple's native token is one of the most popular cryptocurrencies on the market and is often the focus of various price forecasts. Such forecasts have been fuelled by the staggering increases in the past ten days or so.
Well-known analyst EGRAG CRYSTPTO explored this issue from another perspective. He did not directly set a price target for XRP, but instead calculated what the asset's actual value might be if the market value eventually reached $500 billion.
Calculation Process
Before entering the analyst's specific calculations, let's take a look at the final answer: the price of each XRP is US$7. This is based on the assumption that Ripple continues to release tokens from escrow accounts at a recent rate. According to CoinMarketCap, the number of tokens currently in circulation is 62.74 billion. If supply remains the same, a market value of $500 billion will correspond to a price of nearly $8 per XRP.
However, the supply of this asset is not static and will not decrease over time. EGRAG estimates that Ripple Company net releases approximately 268 million tokens per month. If this rate continues until 2029, approximately 9.1 billion new XRPs will enter circulation, bringing the total supply to 71.9 billion.
Dividing the $500 billion by this expected supply reduces the final result to $6.96 per token. However, the analyst said the potential price target could fluctuate between $6.85 and $7.20 depending on how quickly XRP in custody moves into circulation.
It is worth noting that even if Ripple unlocked 1 billion XRPs from custody, it does not mean that the same number of tokens will immediately enter the circulation market. A significant portion may be re-placed in custody or still controlled by the company.
Can a market value of US$500 billion be achieved?
The current XRP price is US$1.42, corresponding to a market value of approximately US$89 billion. To achieve these huge goals, its valuation needs to grow by more than 460%.
On the positive side, recent price movements-in which the token was suspended after soaring from $1.00 to $1.70 in a few days-suggest that investor interest can return quickly. Part of the factor driving the rally came from whale users accumulating and withdrawing funds from large exchanges such as Binance.
But on the other hand, as market capitalization grows, staggering price surges like those at the end of 2024 and early 2025 will become increasingly difficult to achieve. This requires more funding. Despite this, the cross-border payment altcoin is still favored by some large analysts, who firmly believe it still has the ability to achieve such a huge rebound.

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