Bitcoin approaches US$77000, key support for rising yields and technical testing

Bitcoin hovers around US$77,000, facing test key support

On Wednesday, Bitcoin prices hovered around US$77,000, and selling pressure pushed it back into key support areas, posing an important test for the current uptrend. The latest trend has made the $76,000 to $77,000 range the top focus of short-term traders, who are closely watching the outcome of this correction.

Key technical levels may determine short-term trends

Early Wednesday data showed Bitcoin trading between $77,300 and $77,400, highlighting the close correlation between price and support testing. The three-hour chart shows that the current key decision-making range is between $76,000 and $77,000, while Bitcoin was last reported at $76,789.

The importance of this support level has become increasingly prominent as prices are compressed near the lower rail of the downtrend channel after repeated failed attempts to break through the resistance of the upper trend line. If Bitcoin can hold on to that level, analysts expect it to rebound to $78,000 or even hit the resistance range of $79,000 to $80,000.

Cryptocurrency market analyst Wealthmanager pointed out: "If we can successfully hold this area, it may trigger a strong rebound; on the contrary, if we lose, Bitcoin will face more damaging downside risks."

Conversely, if there is a decisive break in the channel's lower trajectory (rather than a brief intraday dip), technical support will weaken in the near term and the risk of further decline will increase as selling momentum strengthens.

Real-time market data shows that the price range has narrowed and the market is waiting for the final result of whether key support levels can be held or lost.

The 50-week moving average remains the main obstacle

While short-term traders focus on short-term structures, the resistance from Bitcoin's 50-week weighted moving average (WMA) keeps the overall outlook cautious. Bitcoin was close to $80,000 after recovering from about $62,000, but is still below its downward 50-week moving average, which is above the current price range of just over $80,000.

Another analyst, MrTranquility, believes that recent gains should be seen as part of a bear market rally. He predicted that Bitcoin could hit a lower low in the fourth quarter and emphasized that sustainable reversals required prices to regain their composure and stabilize their 50-week moving average.

The chart shows that although holding on to US$76,000 to US$77,000 may trigger a short-term rebound, bulls need to break through the 50-week moving average to confirm a large-level trend shift and deny the current downward structure.

The weekly chart also shows that longer-term support comes from the 200-week weighted moving average, which is currently climbing to just over $60,000-an area where Bitcoin has recently gained bottom support. This long-term support will only work if the short-term structure deteriorates seriously.

Small Dictionary: The weighted moving average (WMA) is a technical indicator that gives higher weight to recent prices. Compared with the simple moving average, it can more clearly identify the direction of the trend and smooth the price trend.

Macroeconomic headwinds intensify test

Bitcoin's technical crossroads coincide with a tough global market environment. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose to 4.81 percent on Wednesday as tensions between the United States and Iraq escalated again, pushing up oil prices and bolstering the dollar, further weighing on risky assets, including cryptocurrencies. [TAG Brent crude traded above $95 a barrel as global stocks weakened. Bitcoin had already encountered resistance near $78,000 a day earlier, reflecting growing expectations among traders for another Fed rate hike.

Key assets/indicators and recent levels:

Bitcoin price: US$77,300-US$77,400
Bitcoin key support: US$76,000-US$77,000
Bitcoin 50-week weighted moving average: just over US$80,000
10-year U.S. Treasury yield: 4.81%
Brent crude:

In recent trading above US$95 per barrel, the Bitcoin price fluctuates between US$77,200 and US$79,200, and many attempts to break through the resistance near US$82,000 were unsuccessful. The results of current support tests will determine whether Bitcoin can return to higher levels or face a deeper correction in the face of growing macroeconomic headwinds.