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BTC Federal Reserve Governor Waller hinted that more time may be needed to observe inflation, and the September rate hike will still depend on August data.
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday that he is willing to give inflation more time to slow down, but if August inflation data is higher than expected, another rate hike may still be possible at the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
In an interview, Waller pointed out that recent inflation data shows encouraging progress towards the Fed's 2% target. If this trend continues, he will support keeping interest rates unchanged at the September 15 - 16 policy meeting. The comments come at a time when markets are highly sensitive to inflation and Fed policies. Recent data showed that core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation remained above the Fed's target in July, causing Bitcoin to fall below $78,000.
Waller wants to buy more time for inflation to slow
Waller's stance reflects that while annual inflation remains high, short-term inflationary pressures are easing, which has boosted confidence. According to Waller, the three-month core inflation rate had dropped to 3.05% through July from 4.76% in February, a trend he described as encouraging. This improvement provides policymakers with reasons to avoid prematurely tightening policy. However, Waller said that monetary policy is currently only slightly tight, which means that the Fed still has room for action if inflation accelerates again. This cautious stance stems from more hawkish debate within the central bank. The minutes of the FOMC meeting in July showed that officials discussed the possibility of further interest rates if inflation remained high.
September interest rate hike still depends on August inflation data
August inflation data could quickly change Waller's stance. "If we continue to make progress towards the 2% target, I am willing to support maintaining the policy rate at its current level," Waller said in an official statement. But he added that a hotter inflation reading could provide reasons for a small rate hike. The market responded immediately. After Waller's speech, traders lowered expectations for a September rate hike, while Treasury yields fell and the dollar weakened. This reaction is equally important for the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin has responded to changes in the Fed's expectations many times this year, including a rebound in July after the Fed left interest rates unchanged.
Oil prices remain an inflation risk factor
Energy prices are one of the main uncertainties. Waller acknowledged that oil and other energy costs remain upside risks to inflation, although their previous spillover effects on overall consumer prices have been more limited than initially feared. Higher energy prices could still drive up transportation and production costs and complicate the Fed's efforts to restore inflation to 2%. For now, Waller seems willing to wait for clearer evidence before backing another rate increase. If August data confirms that inflation is cooling, the Fed may remain inactive. But if price pressures accelerate again, another rate hike could soon become the core issue of the September debate.
