XRP faces deeper correction risks as ChartNerd issues warnings as $1.50 resistance continues to be u

XRP's climb above US$0.98 triggered bottom discussions, with analysts pointing out that technical confirmation still lacks.

XRP's recent rebound from US$0.98 has sparked a new round of discussions among traders about whether the asset has formed a long-term bottom. However, cryptocurrency analyst ChartNerd warned that current technical confirmation signals are not sufficient to determine a fundamental reversal in the trend.

XRP encounters a major resistance test

ChartNerd pointed out the critical significance of the monthly 20 exponential moving average (EMA) and weekly 50 EMA in the current XRP market outlook. In its latest analysis, the analyst emphasized that XRP recently tested the monthly 20EMA for the first time, the first attempt since falling below that moving average in January 2026.

According to ChartNerd, similar monthly 20EMA tests have occurred after previous price corrections, but these trends have not always led to sustained recovery. He analyzed the historical price movements of XRP since 2015 and pointed to significant patterns that have emerged in past market cycles.

In the period after its peak in 2013, XRP fell below the monthly 20EMA, and then rebounded nearly 100% to return to the moving average. But after failing to recover that moving average, XRP fell again by 63% to 65%. ChartNerd also cited a similar situation after the 2018 market cycle: XRP rose by 211% on the way to rebound to the monthly 20EMA, but then fell by about 63% to 70% before finally hitting a 2020 low.

Analysts 'current views are focused on the US$1.53 to US$1.55 region, which is the intersection of the monthly 20 EMA and the weekly 50 EMA. He believes that this intersection constitutes a key test for the next direction of assets.

Importance of moving averages and confirmation signals

During this cycle, ChartNerd observed XRP rebound sharply from a low of $0.98, reaching approximately 73% of the monthly 20th EMA in August. Still, the asset failed to close above that moving average, indicating resistance remains solid.

He also emphasized the importance of these moving averages as key indicators in the XRP trading landscape. ChartNerd pointed out that the weekly 50 EMA and monthly 20 EMA must be convincingly breached before any lasting bottom formation is announced.

"While $0.98 may feel like a bottom, the possibility of a double bottom pattern or a downward sweep remains until we see the main resistance level break through and gain further confirmation-particularly through the $1.50 to $2 range. The process may be painful, but respecting the rules of the market can preserve long-term opportunities." He added.

"These are XRP charts that almost no one pays attention to: Although $0.98 appears to be a bottom, the risk of a double bottom or downward sweep remains before seeing a breakthrough of the main resistance level and further confirmation (a breakthrough of $1.50 - 2). Although it may be painful, following this logic can maintain long-term investment opportunities."

The prospect of a deep correction

ChartNerd warned that unless XRP can credibly break its main moving average, there is a possibility of a return to the $1 region or even lower. He believes that the possibility of further corrections cannot be ruled out and draws on past market cycles as an important reference point for current risk assessment.

Analysts, meanwhile, do not expect a repeat of the worst meltdown in XRP history, but insist investors should wait for a clear signal before making firm conclusions about the bottom.

He said that if XRP can strongly break through the resistance zone of $1.50 to $2-especially to achieve a sustained close-it will strongly support the argument of $0.98 as a cyclical low.

Background: RippleLabs is an XRP-related company, a blockchain-based payment company known for its cross-border transaction technology. ChartNerd is an anonymous person known for his technical analysis in the cryptocurrency field, providing market views on X.

Mini Dictionary: The 20EMA (exponential moving average) is a technical indicator that gives more weight to recent price data to identify market trends and potential support or resistance levels. The 50 EMA is also used to track medium-term momentum over the weekly time frame.

ChartNerd's core message emphasizes the need for caution and patience with the XRP structure, stating that investment decisions should be based on technical confirmation rather than speculation. Currently, the price area of $1.50 to $2 remains a key confirmation area that requires close attention.