Bitcoin's 2019 signal resurfaces: What will happen next?

Bitcoin consolidates above $78,000, most major cryptocurrencies suffer sharp sell-off

Bitcoin fluctuates in a narrow range above $78,000 in early Thursday morning, while most major cryptocurrencies experience more severe declines. Dogecoin, which fell more than 5%, was the worst performer;BNB fell about 4%, and XRP fell about 3%.

However, in the midst of the general sell-off, Bitcoin has seen a striking technical signal: its 50-day moving average has successfully crossed above its 200-day moving average. This crossover is often seen as a bullish signal, with analysts noting that current market movements are reminiscent of a major bull run in the past.

So, in the context of pressure on Bitcoin prices, does this signal really signal the beginning of a new round of gains?

Why did dogcoin fall far more than Bitcoin?

Bitcoin has only fallen slightly by about 1% in the past 24 hours, but large altcoins have faced significantly stronger selling pressure. Dogecoin fell more than 5%, becoming the worst-performing head crypto asset on the day;BNB fell about 4%, and XRP fell about 3%. In addition, Solana, HYPE and Ethereum also experienced value retractions ranging from 1% to 3%.

Currently, Ethereum prices are trading below US$2,475, while Solana hovers around US$102. In contrast, TRON became the only bright spot among the major currencies, with an increase of less than 1%, and the price rebounded to about US$0.34.

Looking at the overall market, in addition to the dynamics of cryptocurrency itself, broader economic concerns are also influencing market sentiment.

Why is it important that Bitcoin's 50-day and 200-day moving averages cross?

Bitcoin's 50-day moving average crossed its 200-day moving average on Tuesday. Such crosses, commonly referred to in the market as the "Golden Cross", are a classic technical signal that strengthens rising expectations.

However, not every "golden cross" brings the same positive results. Analysts at FxPro pointed out that similar crossings in October 2024 and May 2025 did not trigger significant gains. However, the situation is different this time: the signal comes after a long period of consolidation and is more similar in shape to a specific stage in history.

Why do analysts compare the current situation with 2019?

Analysts at FxPro believe that the current market structure is closer to the trend of Bitcoin in 2019. According to analysis, after a similar crossover in 2019, Bitcoin rose by about 90% in less than two months.

It should be noted that this similarity does not mean that a 90% increase will definitely occur in the future. Analysts emphasized that the current technical structure is similar to the pattern that existed before strong bull markets in the past started. Because of this, Bitcoin's correction today is particularly interesting.

Oil prices are approaching US$102. Why is the encryption market under pressure?

One of the factors currently posing the biggest macro pressure on the market is oil prices. Brent crude oil prices rose to around $102 in Asian trading. Iran's announcement that it is ready to deal with the risk of further escalation of the conflict has heightened tensions in energy markets.

Higher oil prices have also affected inflation expectations. Affected by this, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield remained at around 4.85%, at its highest level since the end of 2023. Rising bond yields have suppressed risky assets and increased selling pressure on bitcoin and large altcoins.

Why is Friday's data release critical?

Currently, the market focus has shifted to the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released on Friday. If inflation data is higher than expected, the possibility of a Fed rate hike will rise again, adding to pressure on assets that have already suffered declines on Thursday. Conversely, if inflation data is more moderate, it may prompt the market to reassess interest rate expectations.

As a result, Bitcoin is currently facing a game of two different signals: the technical side presents a "golden cross" that supports gains, while the macro side is constrained by oil price and interest rate pressures.

Which signal will ultimately win?

At a time when Bitcoin is trying to stick to the US$78,000 mark, technical aspects and macro fundamentals do not resonate. On the one hand, the 50-day moving average crossing the 200-day moving average and a market structure similar to 2019 have sparked optimism among analysts; on the other hand, oil prices approaching US$102, higher bond yields and upcoming CPI data pose potential negative conditions.

Therefore, the core question facing investors is not only whether Bitcoin can regain its upward trend, but also whether Friday's inflation data will provide macro-level support for technical bullish signals.

The content of this article is based on general market data and does not constitute any investment advice. Readers are advised to conduct independent research.