Bitcoin price analysis: BTC faces a critical week, what is the most likely trend?

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Daily Chart

Daily Chart shows significant structural recovery. After falling to the $60,000 demand range in June, Bitcoin spent months building a broad bottom, then decisively broke through the $67,000 resistance zone in late August. The subsequent rally pushed Bitcoin quickly across the $72,000 to $74,000 region and towards the $80,000 mark.

Currently, the US$72,000 to US$74,000 area has become the primary and major support area. A successful backtest of the region will retain the bullish structure established by recent breakthroughs. Below it, the $67,000 area is a more important structural support level because it has previously been suppressed for months as the top of the market. A deeper correction could bring the $60,000 demand range back into focus.

Above, Bitcoin is approaching the resistance zone of $80,000 to $82,000. Prices have tested the area many times, but have failed to build a sustained breakthrough above it. Therefore, it will be important for the daily closing price to stabilize above $82,000, which may open the door to $90,000 or higher.

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart

The 4-hour chart provides a clearer perspective on recent trends. Throughout the summer, Bitcoin mainly moved sideways between $60,000 and $67,000, and then launched a strong breakout market. The sharp acceleration of movement through the $67,000 resistance zone pushed Bitcoin past $74,000.

However, after hitting the US$80,000 to US$82,000 region, the momentum of the rally weakened. Bitcoin is currently trading around $76,800 and forms a relatively wide integrated range below resistance. As long as the lower boundary remains intact, this can be interpreted as a potential continuation range after a breakthrough.

Immediate support is in the same US$72,000 to US$74,000 region as daily. This area is particularly important because it represents the early resistance level that Bitcoin cleared during the breakout process. Holding this position will maintain a sequence of higher highs and higher lows over a 4-hour time frame.

The main resistance remains at US$80,000 to US$82,000. A clean break and continued trading above this area would signal buyers are regaining control and could factor in the next major daily resistance level (about $95,000). On the contrary, if repeated rejections are encountered and fall below US$72,000, it may trigger a deeper retracement towards US$67,000.

On-chain analysis

The Coinbase Premium Index provides an important consideration for the technical picture. The indicator measures the spread between the price of Bitcoin on Coinbase and other major exchanges and is often used as a proxy for U.S. spot buying pressure. Positive readings generally indicate stronger demand on Coinbase, while negative readings indicate relatively weak spot demand in the United States.

The latest reading on the chart is about-0.02, and the index is back in negative territory again. This is noteworthy because at the same time, Bitcoin's price has been well above its level before the breakout in late August.

This divergence suggests that recent price strength has not been accompanied by a continued surge in buying pressure on Coinbase. In other words, while the technical structure has improved, the latest premium data has yet to provide strong confirmation of positive spot accumulation in the United States.

Historically, during the period shown, the Coinbase premium has been below zero for long periods as Bitcoin fell to the US$60,000 region, and stronger positive readings have emerged in several recovery stages. Therefore, as Bitcoin approaches the resistance zone of $80,000 to $82,000, the current negative reading deserves caution.

To strengthen the bullish scenario, the Coinbase premium needs to re-enter positive territory and synchronize with a break above $82,000, which will provide a more convincing confirmation. If Bitcoin loses $72,000 in support and the premium remains negative, it suggests that the recent rally is undergoing a deeper correction rather than an immediate transition to the next round of gains will increase the probability.