解锁后两周，Hyperliquid 价格跌破 80 美元，我们曾称此次解锁有所不同

Quick Take

1. HYPE traded at US$78.99, a weekly decline of 6.13%, about 5.4% below the all-time high of US$83.50 set on August 25, and fell back below the integer mark.

2. The token released 14,175,778 HYPEs on August 29, its largest monthly unlock. Of this, 46.6% was allocated to insiders and early investors rather than going into the treasury.

3. In this round of trading session when the market performance was divided and 27 QC100 components rose, HYPE was the weakest performer among large-cap stocks. In contrast, Zcash rose 1.13% and XRP rose 0.41%.

Hyperliquid has given up its August gain.

HYPE's current trading price is US$78.99, down 0.77% intraday and 6.13% weekly, making it the weakest large token in the day's market. During the same period, the broader crypto market performed mixed, with 27 of the QC100 components rising.

Real-time price data comes from CoinGecko. The total market value of the crypto market is US$2.62 trillion, and the Bitcoin price is US$76,863.90, a weekly decline of 1.87%.

What did this article say before unlocking?

We previously pointed out that this release is structurally different from the release three weeks ago, and that the "soft landing" in August is not a template.

On August 28, we reported that 14,175,778 HYPEs worth approximately US$1.2 billion were about to be released. The focus was not on the headline size, but on the percentage of recipients: 46.6% to insiders and early investors, 46.3% to the community, and 7% to the Hyper Foundation.

这种比较之所以重要，是因为我们之前对上一次解锁的报道角度不同。8 月 7 日，在市场曾担忧这是一次 6.2 亿美元的事件后，我们报道称实际承诺的索赔额约为 2265 万美元，并写道“阴影比怪物更大”。当时文章明确附带了一个前提：软着陆是一种模式，而非承诺。

我们还发布了历史基准率而非预测值：HYPE 在 5 月释放后下跌 14.1%，6 月上涨 1%，7 月下跌 7%。四次中有三次出现下跌，但无一发生崩盘。目前 6.13% 的周跌幅处于这一历史区间内。

解锁导致了这次下跌吗？

无法确证，否则将是把相关性误读为因果性。

对此类声明有两个边界条件。首先，比特币本周本身下跌了 1.87%，因此 HYPE 的部分下跌属于市场贝塔（Market Beta）效应，而非代币特定的供应因素。其次，解锁是释放代币而非出售代币；接收方是否进行了分销，需通过链上交易所流入量来观察，这才是解决该问题的证据，而本文并未提供此类证据。

我们可以得出的结论范围更窄但仍具参考价值：接收方比例指向比 8 月释放更大的抛压，代币随后跑输大盘及其所在板块，且结果符合此前的分析框架而非与之矛盾。这与“证明”仍有区别。

代币解锁是指先前锁定的代币按计划释放进入流通，其对价格的影响更多取决于谁接收了这些代币，而非释放的数量。

催化剂发生了什么变化？

催化剂并未消失，但两者均未产生具体成果。

8 月创下纪录的行情主要基于两点：一是特朗普总统表示 CFTC 正在为 Hyperliquid 的永续合约制定合规的美国路径；二是协议激活了 AQAv2，将 USDC 储备收益引导至 HYPE 回购，首次支付定于 10 月进行。

监管方面的进展仍仅停留在意向阶段，无公布时间表，任何正式行动都会先出现在 CFTC 官网，然后才会扩散到其他渠道。回购尚未进行首次支付，因此其预期数据仍是预测而非事实。10 月将是验证该数据的关键节点。

HYPE 目前的估值如何？

按当前价格计算，年化收益率倍数约为 39 倍，低于记录时的约 41 倍，但仍远高于本文最初测算的水平。

在 8 月 7 日，HYPE 价格为 55.83 美元，市值接近 123 亿美元时，我们基于每日约 139 万美元的收入基数，计算出年化协议收入倍数约为 24 倍。在 78.99 美元的价格下，市值接近 200 亿美元，在同一收入基数下意味着约 39 倍的估值。

The boundary conditions we set have remained unchanged since the first release: the multiple based on one-day revenue is just a snapshot, and the contribution of AQAv2 is expected rather than realized. Agreement fee data is updated daily on DefiLlama and can be recalculated by interested readers.

What are the key prices now?

Over $80: The integer barrier that has just been lost.

$74 to $76 range: The support below this area was defended by buyers during the August rally.

A quick recovery of $80 marks a regular post-unlock pullback in an upward trend. A fall below $74 would indicate that the distribution process is continuing rather than over, and would question the token's increase throughout August. The October AQAv2 payment is the next planned event that could change the situation.

Bottom line summary

HYPE traded at US$78.99, a weekly decline of 6.13%. Two weeks ago, this article marked 46.6% of the share as a structurally different unlocking event because it was allocated to insiders rather than the treasury. This decline was within its historical post-unlocking performance.

The August article pointed out that a "soft landing" is a pattern rather than a promise, and this release tests this premise. The analytical framework still holds, which is more cautious and honest than predicting: the scale of unlocking hardly explains anything, the proportion of recipients indicates tendency, and the direction of flow along the chain verifies whether the judgment is correct.

本文仅供信息参考，不构成投资建议。加密货币资产波动极大，您可能会损失全部本金。请务必自行研究。