比特币（BTC）在加息和《Clarity法案》受挫背景下重新站稳86,000美元

BitGo Research Report: Bitcoin absorbs two negative positions and stands firm at US$86,000

A report released by BitGo Research shows that despite the two negative factors of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike and the Senate's failure to pass the CLARITY Act (Clarity Act), Bitcoin (BTC) has successfully rebounded and consolidated its market position above US$86,000.

The report pointed out that compared with other assets such as gold and stocks, BTC's price performance is "unusual". Bitcoin prices fell to around $75,000 after the Federal Reserve announced a rate hike, but quickly rebounded strongly, driven by surging demand from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and short covering.

Bitcoin's unique response to bearish

Greg Cipolaro, chief analyst at BitGo Research, said Bitcoin's response is in sharp contrast to traditional assets such as gold. Cipolaro believes that Bitcoin's relatively flat response to interest rate hikes and the CLARITY Act's setback suggests that the market may have digested the bad news ahead of schedule. In addition, factors such as renewed ETF demand, falling oil prices, falling government bond yields and short covering also jointly supported Bitcoin's upward trend.

Cipolaro commented: "Bitcoin absorbed both the hawkish Federal Reserve's surprise move and the failure of the CLARITY Act vote in the same week and left them behind without caring. Gold, stocks and the U.S. dollar performed exactly in line with textbook predictions, but Bitcoin did not."

Two negative catalysts for Bitcoin

1. The first negative factor in the Senate's failure to pass the CLARITY Act

was the Senate's failure to advance the CLARITY Act, which occurred before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) made an interest rate decision. The U.S. Senate rejected a procedural motion to end the debate with a vote of 49 to 59, 11 votes short of the required 60 votes. The bill aims to establish a clear federal framework that divides regulatory authority over digital assets between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Senator Thom Tillis, who was actively involved in bipartisan discussions on the regulation of the cryptocurrency market, ultimately voted against it in order to propose a motion for reconsideration, but there are currently no new voting arrangements on the official Senate list.

2. Fed raises interest rates by 25 basis points

The second negative factor is the Fed's decision to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. This is the first rate increase since July 2023 and is supported by all 12 voting members of the committee. BitGo pointed out that although interest rate hikes were expected, the Fed's new interest rate forecast surprised the market. According to the September Economic Forecast Summary, the median federal funds rate is expected to be 4.1% in 2026 and 2027, up from previous June forecasts of 3.8% and 3.6%. At the same time, the median interest rate forecast for 2028 also jumped from 3.4% to 3.9%. In addition, 16 of the 18 committee members expect to raise interest rates at least once again this year. According to Cipolaro's analysis, these forecasts suggest Fed officials believe interest rates will remain at higher levels for longer.

与此同时，传统市场对美联储决定的反应符合预期。道琼斯指数在9月下跌1.21%，标普500指数下跌0.44%，短期国债收益率上升，美元指数走强。

比特币价格走势：韧性的体现

比特币对上述两个事件的反应极具说服力。在参议院未能推进《CLARITY法案》后，比特币价格大幅下跌，跌幅超过3%，至75,584美元。随后，美联储的加息决定进一步压低价格，但BTC从低点74,911美元反弹，收复76,000美元关口，最终收于76,144美元。这一复苏被归因于加息已被市场提前定价。尽管面临利空，比特币仍继续其上行趋势，ETF资金流入、市场情绪改善以及空头回补推动价格走高。

得益于积极的监管转变和机构需求的回暖，比特币在周五大涨近6%，突破80,000美元大关，收于80,875美元。本周初，比特币再次跳涨6.70%，突破86,000美元，收于86,594美元。目前，BTC的交易价格约为86,140美元。

The rebound was accompanied by a large inflow of cash Bitcoin ETFs. CoinGlass data showed that ETFs recorded inflows of $159.5 million on Thursday, compared with as high as $433 million on Friday. Inflows surged to $999 million on Monday and recorded $714.7 million on Tuesday, bringing the total inflow over four trading days to $2.3 billion. Nansen Research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard also emphasized that strong cash flow is a key driver of Bitcoin's rebound, and forced short liquidation is another important factor.

BitGo pointed out that in the current context of interest rate hikes, Bitcoin's performance has not weakened as expected. Cipolaro said that historically when market conditions deteriorate, Bitcoin has typically weakened in tandem with other traditional assets. However, in this incident, yields on stocks, gold, U.S. dollars and government bonds all performed as expected, with the exception of Bitcoin. BitGo emphasized that spot Bitcoin ETFs provide regulated asset access channels for institutions and securities firms; many listed companies already hold BTC on their balance sheets; and the derivatives market has also grown significantly. These factors together constitute Bitcoin's unique foundation for resilience.