核心观点
汇丰银行(HSBC)维持其对全球股票的最强超配立场。美国及亚洲科技板块获得该行最高的信心评级。在投资偏好上,该行优先考虑美国科技股而非小盘股,同时对欧洲金融股持支持态度。
市场动态与背景
周二,纳斯达克100指数创下收盘历史新高,随后于周三出现回调。高昂的能源成本、上升的收益率以及高企的科技股估值倍数构成了显著的挑战。尽管如此,汇丰银行继续倡导其在全球股票中最积极的定位,建议投资者保持对科技行业的重大敞口。
汇丰银行首席多资产策略师马克·凯特纳(Max Kettner)确认,汇丰银行在股票方面仍保持“最大超配”状态,并特别强调美国和亚洲科技公司。这一建议在科技股周三出现暂停之际发出。随着油价攀升和美国国债收益率上升,纳斯达克综合指数在开盘时下跌约0.1%,而标普500指数交易价格基本持平。
此前的一周表现强劲。周一,纳斯达克100指数飙升2.8%,周二再涨0.8%,达到30,732.40的历史收盘高点,这得益于对人工智能投资和创收潜力的信心恢复。
科技仍是汇丰银行的首要关注点
HSBC has made it clear that it prefers U.S. and Asian technology stocks, and ranks U.S. technology stocks above small capitalized companies. The bank also has a constructive view on European financial stocks and holds moderate overallocation positions in emerging markets and high-yield fixed income products.
Kettner believes that despite high energy costs and high bond yields, macroeconomic indicators show resilience. According to HSBC's assessment, these pressures are already reflected in pricing in equity and credit markets, reducing the likelihood that investors will ignore these factors entirely.
Technology remains the bank's most confident stock choice. After Monday's artificial intelligence-driven rally, the sector regained positive momentum, with semiconductor manufacturers and Meta providing important impetus for the gains. On Tuesday, Nasdaq hit another milestone, as market participants continued to focus on the implementation of artificial intelligence, enhanced corporate profitability and expectations for improved returns on infrastructure investment.
Therefore, HSBC's current configuration assumes that the recent AI-driven rally still has room for upside, rather than marking its end.
Energy prices, interest rates and political factors may determine the future direction
HSBC views the development of the energy market as a potential market catalyst. Keitner highlighted positive oil supply news, including Saudi Arabia's east-west pipeline infrastructure, factors that could ease inflationary pressures and reduce pressure on financial markets.
该行还谈及了11月的美国中期选举。凯特纳指出,选举预测市场中不断变化的动态可能会塑造对美国政策方向的预期,但他强调这代表的是汇丰银行的市场分析,而非选举预测。
市场仍在面对切实的风险。周三油价再次上涨,高企的美国国债收益率对股票构成压力,特别是那些对利率敏感的科技股。在纳斯达克迅速反弹之后,估值成为另一个令人担忧的领域。如果融资成本保持高位,或者围绕人工智能资本支出的热情消退,强劲的业绩表现需要持续下去以证明当前价格水平的合理性。
尽管如此,汇丰银行仍处于期待股市进一步增值的位置。其当前的资产配置仍将股票保持在最大超配水平,科技作为该战略的核心基石,尽管周三出现了适度回调。

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