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BTC 比特币“牛市”格局暂存，但上涨动能减弱
尽管比特币市场目前仍处于牛市阶段，但数据分析平台 CryptoQuant 指出，价格上涨的动能正在减弱，同时抛售压力有所增加。根据其9月29日发布的分析报告，比特币上周收盘价成功站稳在365日移动平均线之上，这一技术信号进一步确认了新牛市的开启。然而，部分链上指标显示，当前的反弹行情已显疲态。
此前，比特币价格一度攀升至87,400美元，创下八个月来的新高，随后回调至83,000美元区间。与此同时，CryptoQuant 的“比特币看涨得分指数”（Bull Score Index）仍维持在90/100的高位，这表明市场的整体结构依然偏向多头。
比特币牛市是否已经结束？
答案是否定的。目前的链上数据尚未呈现出牛市终结的迹象。CryptoQuant 认为，比特币重新站上365日移动平均线是新一轮牛市的确证信号。此外，“看涨得分指数”保持在90分高位，佐证了多项技术指标仍在支撑上行趋势。
当前的问题主要在于上涨速度的放缓。在触及87,400美元高点后，随着价格回调，部分投资者开始选择获利了结，需求端的疲软也加剧了这一走势。
为何获利盘抛压加剧？
The most significant warning sign comes from investors 'profit margins. Data shows that Bitcoin's short-term unrealized profit Ratio has risen to 33%, the highest level since December 2024. Looking back at history, such high unrealized profits often occurred on the eve of large-scale selling.
The latest data confirms that profitable selling has begun to occur. On September 22, investors achieved a profit of approximately 25,700 BTC. CryptoQuant pointed out that this is the highest level of profit achieved in a single day since 2026. This means that some investors have seen price increases as a selling opportunity.
What does it mean for altcoins to flow into exchanges?
Selling pressure is not limited to Bitcoin, and the altcoin market has also shown signs of active transfer of funds to exchanges. In the cumulative data of the past seven days, the number of transactions in which altcoins were transferred to exchanges reached 76,000, involving approximately 51,000 investors. According to CryptoQuant statistics, this value is the highest since October 17, 2025.
The transfer of large quantities of tokens to exchanges is generally seen as an investor's preparation for sale. Therefore, CryptoQuant interprets this phenomenon as a sign that the altcoin market is facing distribution (shipping) pressure. This is also indicative for the Bitcoin market: the increased tendency to sell altcoins may reflect a decline in risk appetite in the entire cryptocurrency market.
Why is Bitcoin demand weakening?
CryptoQuant 关注的另一个焦点是现货市场的需求变化。过去30天内，可见的现货需求减少了约170,000枚BTC。同期，衍生品市场的投机性增长也显著放缓。
数据显示，9月14日时投机性期货交易需求约为164,000枚BTC，而最新数据已降至仅约16,000枚左右。无论是现货还是期货市场，需求的动力均已减弱。若要维持上涨势头，比特币需要新的买盘入场以抵消当前的抛压。
关键支撑位在哪里？
若出现可能的回调，CryptoQuant 指出了三个重要的观察点位：
- 第一支撑位：约80,000美元附近的365日移动平均线。
- 第二支撑位：约71,000美元的200日移动平均线。
- 第三支撑位：交易者已实现价格的盈亏平衡点附近，约67,000美元。
CryptoQuant 将比特币向这些区域回落视为 consolidation（盘整）过程的一部分。守住这些关键位置对于维持更广泛的多头结构至关重要。然而，随着需求减弱和获利盘增加，短期内出现更深幅回调的风险正在上升。
后市展望
CryptoQuant's current assessment reveals two coexisting market scenarios: on the one hand, a 90-point bullish score index and a recovery of the 365-day moving average indicate that the market is still in a bull market; on the other hand, an increasing number of profit-taking orders, a surge in exchange gold deposits and weak demand for spot and futures indicate a lack of momentum.
Therefore, the core question for some time to come is: Can new buyers effectively withstand selling pressure? Bitcoin's 365-day moving average around $80,000 will be the first important test level. If there is a more drastic retracement,$71,000 and $67,000 will become key follow-up observation points.
To sum up, according to CryptoQuant, the current situation is not enough to declare the end of the bull market. But to push the market to continue to rise, the market must regain strong demand momentum.
Note: This content is based on general market data and does not constitute investment advice. Readers are advised to conduct independent research.
