NVDA's share price approaches record high, and major events are about to strike

Core Highlights

Nvidia shares rose 0.8% to $230.19 in pre-market trading, just one step away from the record closing of $235.74 set on May 14.

Year-to-date, the stock has returned 22%, with a strong increase of 17% in the third quarter. Wall Street expects Nvidia to release quarterly results in mid-to-late November. Anthropic's potential November initial public offering could reveal a spending pattern for artificial intelligence infrastructure in favor of Nvidia. The huge $150 billion repurchase authorization announced on September 28 pushed its total repurchase capacity to approximately $235 billion.

Shares are close to all-time highs as the market focuses on two key events

Nvidia shares rose 0.8% to hit $230.19 in pre-market trading on Thursday. The rally has brought its semiconductor giant's share price tantalizingly close to its historical closing record of $235.74 set on May 14.

The performance throughout 2026 is impressive. Shares have risen 22% since January, with the third quarter contributing a strong 17% gain, according to Dow Jones Markets data. Currently, market participants are paying close attention to two major events that may shape stock price movements at the end of the year.

The immediate catalyst is Nvidia's quarterly financial disclosure, which is expected to be released in mid-to-late November. In its previous quarterly announcement, the company forecast revenue to expand by approximately 70% in fiscal 2028. This aggressive growth forecast has driven up market expectations, and observers will be carefully examining whether Nvidia can maintain this momentum.

Another potential market driver has implications beyond Nvidia itself. According to the Wall Street Journal, Anthropic, the artificial intelligence company that developed Claude's assistant, is preparing for a public offering in November. Nvidia maintains a significant financial commitment to Anthropic. According to reports, chipmakers committed up to $10 billion last year and participated in a round of financing that valued Anthropic close to $350 billion. Current expectations suggest Anthropic is targeting a valuation of its initial public offering of nearly $2 trillion. Successful market entry could alleviate concerns about the sustainability of investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure and provide transparency on demand for Nvidia's semiconductor products.

Historical performance patterns support bullish prospects

Historical data presents an encouraging background. Analysis dating back to 1999 shows that the fourth quarter was Nvidia's strongest period, with an average increase of 22%. During the last five-year window, fourth-quarter returns averaged 17%. Whether this seasonal strength will return this year remains to be determined.

Nvidia was recommended by Barron's in May, when its share price was trading around $226 and its forward P/E ratio was about 24 times. According to FactSet data, the valuation indicator has now been compressed to about 17 times.

Capital Allocation and Trading Activities

From a corporate governance perspective, Nvidia's board of directors approved an additional $150 billion share repurchase plan on September 28. This authorization increases the company's total repurchase capabilities to approximately US$235 billion, valid until fiscal year 2028, accounting for approximately 2.8% of current outstanding shares. Large-scale repurchase programs often reflect management's belief that stock prices are below intrinsic value. Wall Street analysts echoed this optimism, maintaining a consensus "buy" rating with an average price target of $324.14.

Insiders 'trading activities are worth noting. Director Mark Stevens sold 622,239 shares at an average execution price of $231.62 in early September, while executive vice president Timothy Teter sold 30,460 shares at $222.80 per share later that month. In the past 90 days, company insiders have sold a total of $399.5 million in shares through structured transaction arrangements. Institutional investors remain dominant, controlling about 65% of outstanding shares.

Nvidia's earnings report on August 26 exceeded Wall Street's expectations. Earnings per share were $2.22, higher than the consensus estimate of $2.09; revenue reached $96.22 billion, higher than expectations of $92.27 billion, a year-on-year increase of 106%.

The company maintains a quarterly dividend distribution of $0.25, most recently paid on October 1 to registered shareholders as of September 10. This equates to an annual dividend of $1.00, with a current yield of 0.4%.