Bitcoin market value may reach US$30 trillion

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer: Bitcoin's market value may reach US$3 trillion. Benchmarking gold

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan said that from a historical comparison perspective, the total market value of Bitcoin is expected to reach approximately US$3 trillion in the future, which is equivalent to the current total market value of gold. This scenario means that the price of a single coin for Bitcoin may be close to $1.5 million, but this is not a short-term forecast but an analysis based on a long-term historical trajectory.

Summary of core views

• Market value benchmarking: According to Matt Hougan, the total market value of Bitcoin may reach US$3 trillion, which is the same as the market value of gold.
• Theoretical price: This market value corresponds to a theoretical unit price of approximately US$1.5 million for Bitcoin.
• Institutional push: The launch of the Bitcoin Spot ETF will help promote institutional adoption and support long-term demand.
• Supply restrictions: The total cap of 21 million units may intensify the pressure on price increases.
• Long-term perspective: Hougan prefers a long-term perspective and does not set a specific timetable for achieving this goal.

Using gold as a reference: The paradigm shift brought by ETFs

Hougan's reasoning is largely based on the trajectory of the U.S. gold market after the emergence of exchange-traded funds (ETFs). When SPDR Gold Shares went public in 2004, the total market value of gold was approximately US$250 billion. According to estimates by Bitwise executives, today, more than 20 years later, this figure is close to US$3 trillion. The introduction of ETFs has greatly lowered the investment threshold, allowing investors to hold gold indirectly through securities accounts without having to purchase or physically hold gold bars.

Hougan believes Bitcoin is currently facing a similar situation. In January 2024, the United States approved the spot Bitcoin ETF. At that time, the market value of the cryptocurrency was close to US$100 billion, and its total market value briefly exceeded the US$200 billion mark.

In a video he shared on October 9, he pointed out: "I think it is entirely possible for it to replicate what gold has achieved, reaching a market value of US$3 trillion, which is a very interesting price target."

This comparison mainly suggests that ETFs may gradually expand their investor base. However, this does not mean that Bitcoin will inevitably repeat the performance of gold in the past.

The mathematical logic behind the US$3 trillion market value

At the time of the comments, Bitcoin was trading at approximately $83,000, with a total market value of nearly $165 billion. To reach a market value of US$3 trillion, its total value needs to increase by about 18 times. Given that the number of bitcoins in circulation is close to 20 million, such a market value corresponds to a theoretical price of approximately US$1.5 million per bitcoin. If calculated based on the maximum supply limit of 21 million units (which is expected to be reached around 2140), the calculated unit price will be slightly lower.

It should be noted that a market value of US$3 trillion is not the official target of Bitwise Fund, and Hougan has not announced a specific date for achieving this scenario. He suggested evaluating the value of Bitcoin on a ten-year cycle.

As early as March 2026 (Note: The original time expression may have context differences, so this is reserved as the original text), the executive put forward another hypothesis to demonstrate the possibility of Bitcoin reaching US$1 million. He estimated that if historical growth rates are maintained, the combined market size of gold and Bitcoin could reach US$12.1 trillion in ten years. If Bitcoin can account for about 17% of this, its price will exceed $1 million. These forecasts rely on two conditions: the continued expansion of the global reserve asset market and the increase in Bitcoin's share.

How ETFs affect market supply

Spot Bitcoin ETFs allow institutional investors, financial advisers and ordinary savers to access Bitcoin without having to manage digital wallets. This convenience, according to Bitwise, can support long-term needs. At the same time, the maximum supply of bitcoins is strictly limited to 21 million, and with each "halving" event, the issuance speed of new coins gradually decreases. If ETF purchases continue to exceed what holders sell, the scarcity of available supply will put upward pressure on prices.

However, this mechanism does not operate linearly. Higher prices could encourage early investors to take profits, while large outflows of ETF funds could also exacerbate market corrections. Therefore, institutional demand cannot eliminate market cyclical fluctuations and volatility.

Bitwise also defends Bitcoin's status as a "digital store of value." Although this feature remains controversial due to its short history, volatile prices and sometimes exhibiting risk characteristics similar to technology assets.

Investor behavior remains the main risk

Hougan does not view technical issues as the main threat to his scenario, but instead highlights the risks of investor behavior, especially their ability to hold onto positions in a sharp market decline. Bitcoin has experienced many large pullbacks of more than 70% in its history. The use of leverage could further amplify losses, leading to forced liquidations before markets are likely to recover.

In addition, the US$3 trillion market value assumes that the authorities continue to accept Bitcoin's integration into the traditional financial system. Tighter regulations, continued decline in demand, or Bitcoin's inability to seize market share from gold could invalidate this assumption.

To sum up, Bitwise's scenario depicts Bitcoin's theoretical potential rather than a definite end point. There is still a gap of more than $2.8 trillion between its current market value and the market value of gold.