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XRP Portfolio managers warn: A new round of global liquidity crisis may spread from Tokyo.
Michael Guid, portfolio manager and founder of the Leading Decline Lag Report, pointed out that a new global liquidity crisis is taking shape, and Tokyo may become the potential epicenter of the crisis. Guy emphasized that the increasingly clear correlation between the yen, gold, oil, XRP and U.S. Treasury bonds indicates that the global market landscape is changing.
The pressure on the yen and oil continues to intensify
According to Guy\'s analysis, the primary risk at present is a currency crisis originating in Asia. For years, investors have borrowed low-interest yen to invest in U.S. stocks. However, the Bank of Japan\'s recent move to raise interest rates in support of the yen may quickly prompt the unwinding of these leveraged trades, thus exacerbating selling pressure on the market.
Mini Glossary: Carry trade refers to borrowing low-interest currency and investing in high-yield assets; reverse carry trade refers to when the financial environment deteriorates, forcing investors to quickly close these positions, triggering violent market fluctuations.
Another factor weighing on the situation is the rise in oil prices. As commodity prices continue to climb against the yen, Japan\'s import-dependent economy is under increased pressure. Guy believes Tokyo may be forced to sell U.S. Treasurys more aggressively to make up for funding needs-which would put the Fed in a thorny dilemma. Michael Guid pointed out that if systemic pressures escalate, regulators may prioritize protecting the bond market, increasing the risk of a larger correction in the stock market.
U.S. Treasury bonds are protected first amid global tensions
Guid insists that U.S. authorities are unlikely to allow major chaos in their government debt markets. He suggested policymakers might tolerate a weaker stock market to support U.S. Treasuries. This view is also consistent with predictions that defensive sectors such as utilities and real estate investment trusts may continue to outperform the market until July 2026.
In Guid\'s judgment, traditional safe-haven assets such as gold and long-term U.S. Treasury bonds are expected to stand out during the market panic period. This reflects a shift from growth and risky assets to more defensive tools.
XRP has attracted much attention as an alternative option
Guy compared XRP with gold and oil, which attracted the attention of the cryptocurrency community. It is worth noting that this analyst does not view XRP from the perspective of blockchain technology, but sees it as a channel for international capital flows and global liquidity migration. Therefore, his focus is more on whether capital seeking safety will turn to alternative channels such as XRP when markets are under pressure.
Guid predicts that once the money market fluctuates violently, XRP may become an alternative bridge for risk-averse international capital flows. If turmoil deepens in the foreign exchange market, Guide believes that tokens like XRP may increasingly promote rapid capital flows. However, whether this scenario can come true depends largely on the continued pressure on the yen and whether oil prices continue to rise.
For now, Guid recommends that investors shift their eyes away from Wall Street indices and focus instead on defensive assets linked to Tokyo and Washington. He expects the market\'s direction to become clearer as a new equilibrium develops-particularly in the yen and U.S. Treasuries.
