Lynn Alden says Bitcoin faces the weakest investor confidence in this market cycle

Macroeconomic analyst Lin Alden: Bitcoin faces the weakest investor confidence in the current market cycle

Macroeconomic analyst Lin Alden pointed out that Bitcoin is experiencing the current market cycle. The period of investor confidence is at its lowest. The analyst, who is known for studying Bitcoin, emphasized that the long-term success of the asset should not rely on external support, but should be rooted in its own core characteristics.

Investor sentiment is weak, cautious expectations dominate

In an interview with Natalie Brunel, Alden said that at this stage she does not expect any new external catalyst to push Bitcoin higher. She believes that Bitcoin\'s resilience will depend on its structural characteristics-liquidity, permission-free use, and its function as a tool for storing and transferring value.

Lynn Alden emphasized that she believes that no external factors can \"save\" Bitcoin at present, and emphasized that the asset should rely on its inherent advantages to withstand the test.

She further pointed out that the recent decline is significantly different from when Bitcoin fell to US$16,000 in 2022. At that time, investor interest was still relatively strong; today, a weak narrative, a clearer corporate-led market structure, and widespread investor frustration are the focus.

Based on this background, Alden\'s main prediction for this year\'s market is that Bitcoin will not hit a record high. However, considering Bitcoin\'s volatile nature, she did not completely rule out the possibility of a sharp rise. In the short term, no new lows have emerged and technical trends are sideways or slow upward, which are regarded as positive signals.

Pressure on strategy firms increases

As institutional adoption and bitcoin-related corporate financial strategies have become important themes in this cycle, people are once again turning to strategy firms, the world\'s largest Bitcoin corporate holder. Earlier this week, Strategy disclosed that it had sold 3,588 bitcoins with a total value of $216 million.

Alden pointed out that amid the downward trend, investors are taking a closer look at the company\'s bitcoin-backed capital structure and preferred stock products. She observed that tools such as STRC provide specific features for investors who want to participate indirectly in the company\'s Bitcoin strategy without directly holding Bitcoin.

Terminology: STRC is a preferred stock product of Strategy Company. Preferred stocks often offer different returns and rights than common stocks, allowing investors to indirectly participate in certain strategies without having to directly hold the underlying assets.

Alden warned that high-yield products linked to Bitcoin could encourage investors to increase leverage, while noting that the long-term performance of these instruments remains fundamentally determined by the price of Bitcoin.

She also commented that the company\'s recent efforts to strengthen its mortgage structure and introduce more safeguards were reasonable. But she cautioned that the effectiveness of these safeguards will ultimately depend on the future price movements of Bitcoin.

A summary of key data

Strategy sold: 3,588 bitcoins
Total value sold: US$216 million
Alden\'s main forecast: No record high will be reached this year

Discussion of Bitcoin protocol changes sparks caution

Alden also talked about discussions on Bitcoin Improvement Proposal 110 (BIP 110). The proposal aims to limit transactions with high data volumes, including those used for visual storage, to reduce unnecessary congestion on the Bitcoin network.

Terminology: BIP stands for Bitcoin Improvement Proposal and is the formal process for introducing technical changes to the Bitcoin network. Such proposals require rigorous technical evaluation by developers, users and ecosystem participants before implementation; they are not automatically adopted.

Alden explained that she is generally cautious about changing Bitcoin rules quickly. She pointed out that some proposals could make networks more complex or affect existing security mechanisms. She advocated careful analysis of the technical arguments for any agreement change, both positive and negative.

She also criticized the way some proposals were presented publicly. Alden believes that describing the protocol changes as an existential threat to Bitcoin may exaggerate their importance and fail to provide the right perspective for public discussion.