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BTC Bitcoin (BTC) is experiencing a \"textbook\" bear market bottom, with speculators taking profits as the price approaches $65,000.
Key points:
Analysis believes that Bitcoin is repeating its previous macro bottom behavior in a \"textbook\" manner.
Short-term holders took profits during a small rally-this is \"a feature of a bull market.\"
There are still doubts about whether speculators can avoid future surrenders.
Analysis: Bitcoin\'s bottom \"will be very obvious in hindsight\"
In the latest analysis of Platform X, Frank, the Bitcoin quantitative account named after the famous economist Frank A. Fett, is doubly convinced that the worst of the downward trend in BTC prices is over.
\"This is a textbook bottom for Bitcoin; I mean, every bottom signal has been or is flashing, which will be very obvious in hindsight,\" read one post.
The accompanying chart shows the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) of BTC/USD and various quantiles. The ninth quintile is particularly eye-catching, marking a reversal point at the bottom of the bear market in 2022 and the COVID-19 collapse in March 2020. Prices have now returned to this reversal zone.
BTC/USD Chart (Including 200-Week SMA Data)
Looking back at short-term holders (STH)-wallets that have held BTC for no more than six months and have not sold-another encouraging sign emerges. For Frank, the positive signal of the realized expense-to-profit ratio (SOPR) for this group is particularly obvious. SOPR measures whether short-term holders have made a profit or loss in coins transferred on the chain.
\"A key Bitcoin indicator could indicate that the market is shifting. STH-SOPR has just turned positive and short-term holders are turning profitable,\"he wrote. \"It is a feature of a bull market that markets treat short-term holders well.\"
Bitcoin STH-SOPR data
Short-term holders may still experience \"surrender\"
These findings further strengthen the consensus among market participants that there is not much time left for the bear market in 2026.
Various on-chain indicators and related price scales have reached levels unseen since 2022.
At the same time, online analysis platform CryptoQuant takes a more cautious view of STH-SOPR, warning that the indicator may need to hit a new low first. \"In stronger bottoms, STH SOPR typically falls deeper as short-term holders surrender and sell at huge losses. However, current levels are not close to the deeper surrender zone near the previous local bottom area of 0.93,\"contributor Trader Germini commented in a blog post on Wednesday. \"This means the market has cooled down, but has not yet shown a strong signal of surrender from short-term holders.\"
Bitcoin STH-SOPR data (screenshot)
