The situation in the United States and Iran is tense. Can Bitcoin hold on to US$62,000 support?
Bitcoin prices have remained relatively strong in the past few days as tensions between the United States and Iran have escalated. So, can Bitcoin prices stay at the support level of around $62,000? Or, if the conflict between the two sides escalates further, will this become the trigger for Bitcoin to fall into the abyss of a bear market?
Bitcoin prices rebounded to US$63,000 resistance
As expected, Bitcoin prices fell back in view of the fact that the market was slightly overbought in the past day or two. At the same time, prices gained strong support at the upper edge of the downward wedge, horizontal support and the bull trend line. After the rebound, prices are currently facing resistance at the $63,000 level that has so far prevented prices from rising further. Next, prices may continue to move sideways unless the situation in the Middle East drags down U.S. stocks, which in turn is likely to drag down bitcoin prices.
High points are lower, low points are lower
Perhaps the main positive sign on the daily chart is that Bitcoin prices remain above the bull trend line. This is one of the last key lines of defense to prevent the market from plunging into a deeper bear market. In other words, prices have fallen below this trend line before, but fortunately prices have not closed below it in a higher time frame. From a bearish perspective, Bitcoin prices continue to hit lower highs and lower lows, and even if the short-term trend is upward, the trend appears quite weak. The 50-day simple moving average is moving downward towards current prices, which is likely to create further resistance. In addition, the relative strength index may be forming an upward wedge. The probability of a price falling from this pattern is usually greater than the probability of an increase.
Relative Strength Trend Line Will Play a Key Role in Bear Market
Price movements on the weekly chart have not given warning signals, at least not yet. However, when looking at the relative strength index over this longer time frame, we can see that even if the bulls rebound strongly here, the indicator line will take a lot of effort to break through the downtrend line that has been extended since the beginning of 2024, when the eight-month-long giant bull flag pattern began. The first three touches of this trend line reveal bearish divergences in the bullish bull price movement. This divergence seems to have played a role, or Bitcoin prices may still be in it. What seems quite certain is that this trend line will play a key role in determining how long the current bear market will last.

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