Bitcoin prices flash all bottom signals, except one missing

Bitcoin flashes all bottom signals, but one key factor still remains.

Bitcoin may be showing many similar characteristics to previous market bottoms, but one important signal remains unmanifested. Data on the chain continues to point to cumulative trends, and many historical indicators are now close to their pre-major recovery status. However, one missing link still stands in the way of full confirmation: demand for spot bitcoin ETFs has not yet substantially returned, and this omission may determine whether BTC prices have bottomed out or whether there is room for downside before the next major recovery.

Data on the Bitcoin chain shows numerous bottom signals

An analysis shared by aixbt, an automated AI market intelligence agent operated by @aixbt_labs, states that Bitcoin currently operates in two separate markets. Traditional finance continues to reduce exposure through spot ETFs, but blockchain data paints a much stronger picture. Several major indicators are now close to what Bitcoin used to see near the bottom of the market. The whale wallet accumulated approximately 270,000 BTC in two weeks. The number of bitcoins available on exchanges has dropped to its lowest level since 2017. About 78% of the total Bitcoin supply is still in the hands of long-term holders. The miners \'stress index has dropped to 0.00, consistent with levels near the bottom in 2015, 2018, 2020 and 2022. The achieved P & L ratio is below 0.35 (negative), with similar readings only previously seen near these major market lows. Coinbase\'s premium has been negative for 51 consecutive days, setting the longest consecutive record on record.

Bitcoin currently operates in two separate markets. Since October last year, traditional finance has withdrawn $9 billion from ETFs, and the Coinbase premium has been negative for 51 consecutive days (the longest record in history). At the same time, crypto native whales accumulated 270,000 BTC in two weeks, and the proportion of spot trading volume jumped from 50% to 67%...

- aixbt (@aixbt_agent) July 8, 2026

Every indicator points to the same conclusion: large households continue to buy Bitcoin, exchange balances are extremely low, miners have little financial pressure, and long-term holders have little willingness to sell. Spot market activity also continues to grow. A year ago, spot volume accounted for about 50% of Bitcoin transactions, but now this proportion has climbed to about 67%, indicating increased direct buying rather than excessive reliance on leverage.

Bitcoin ETF demand still not restored

Despite the strong performance of online data, traditional finance is still telling a different story. Since October last year, the spot Bitcoin ETF has recorded a net outflow of approximately US$9 billion. ETF inflows briefly turned positive for two days before slowing down again. Data on July 8 showed that the net inflow was only 197 BTC, well below the level needed to confirm a trend reversal. This missing demand is important because ETF buyers often provide the additional liquidity needed for Bitcoin prices to break through key resistance levels. Current blockchain data shows that the market continues to absorb available supply. Whales continue to accumulate Bitcoin, long-term holders continue to hold, and exchange reserves remain near multi-year lows. Institutional buying has not yet continued to return. Until ETF inflows are sustained rather than temporary, the final confirmation many analysts are looking for remains missing.

Bitcoin price recovery is still possible

BTC prices continue to gain support near the upper edge of the US$50,000 range. Buyers repeatedly defended the $57,000 to $59,000 area, which prevented a deeper decline despite persistent uncertainty. Many analysts still believe Bitcoin may fall again before embarking on the next major recovery. This view is popular because institutional demand has not yet fully returned and overall market confidence remains fragile.

BTC Price Chart/ TradingView.com

If Bitcoin can break through several key resistance levels, recovery remains a real possibility. Strong resistance is currently between $64,000 and $66,000. If this range can be successfully exceeded, it may allow BTC prices to return to the previous wide range of US$64,000 to US$82,000 for long-term trading. If it breaks beyond the $83,000 level further and buying pressure continues to increase, Bitcoin could open a path to its 2026 high (close to $97,000). Downside risks are still worthy of attention. The support level near $57,000 is one of the most important levels on the Bitcoin chart. If it breaks below this zone decisively, it may push the BTC price into the US$40,000 range, and the market will finally establish a lasting bottom.

Bitcoin prices still require final confirmation

Bitcoin currently presents an interesting combination of encouraging signals and lingering unknowns. The on-chain data is very similar to previous market bottoms, with multiple historical indicators continuing to support the view that sellers are exhausted. ETF demand remains the biggest missing factor. Continued institutional buying may provide the catalyst needed for BTC prices to move out of current ranges and initiate a stronger recovery. Prior to this, Bitcoin was still in a state where the evidence pointed to the bottom, but full confirmation still had to wait.

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