Deep value, not yet confirmed: Glassnode points out that Bitcoin bottom is still unconfirmed

Five months underwater: Bitcoin\'s bottom signal remains unconfirmed

Bitcoin\'s current price has been below the average buying cost of market participants for a full five months. This is the embarrassing reality facing Bitcoin-for nearly six months, its trading price has been below the real market average and the cost basis for short-term holders. However, lower prices alone do not constitute a real bottom.

The latest on-chain report points out why traditional deep value signals are not yet enough to confirm the bottom-effective resonance has not yet been formed between key indicators such as holder behavior, ETF capital flow, and derivatives markets. This contradiction is not theoretical empty talk.

Long-term holders have become the main force of losses, and the historical pattern has reversed.

Long-term holders who are often regarded as anchors at the bottom of the market have now become the main source of losses. Their share of overall loss selling has climbed from 15% in early February to 43% this month. At one point, the realized daily loss reached US$280 million, a figure unseen since the FTX crash in December 2022. For traders accustomed to buying when long-term holders stop selling, this trend is undoubtedly a flashing yellow light.

ETF demand remains well below peak levels

As the institutional confidence that drove Bitcoin up through 2024 and most of 2025, it has not yet returned to the spot ETF market. Although the outflow of funds has narrowed to US$88.9 million from the previous daily level of US$193 million, improving, it is still firmly in a net outflow state. What is even more telling is the sharp decline in trading volume. Today, daily ETF trading volume is only between US$650 million and US$950 million, down about 80% from October 2025 levels. As institutional funds flow into other areas, especially tokenized real-world assets, the Bitcoin spot ETF market looks like a market waiting for a catalyst.

This divergence between value and institutional behavior on the deep chain is not unprecedented, but it is extremely stubborn. Historically, persistent market reversals usually occur after ETF funds flow stabilizes and long-term holders reduce distribution behavior. At present, neither of these conditions has yet been met. The market is in a \"waiting room\" and the door has not yet been opened.

Derivatives seem bullish, but skewed data tells the truth

Open interest in options appears to be bullish on the surface. The bear/call ratio has dropped to 0.56, its lowest level since 2026, indicating that pure short demand is fading. However, option skew remains-traders are still paying a premium for downside protection while reducing directional bearish bets. This structure usually occurs late in the bear market cycle, when the sense of urgency for hedging fades but fears of the market\'s last fall persist. The report describes this phenomenon as \"a late stage of the bear market bottoming process,\" a term that accurately captures the market\'s sense of fatigue and persistent asymmetric risks.

This asymmetry becomes reasonable when we zoom in to the broader market structure. A legislative game over U.S. cryptocurrency regulation is intensifying, while bank lobbying groups are trying to amend a landmark bill just days before the Senate vote. This policy uncertainty is enough to keep institutional allocators on the sidelines, even if valuation indicators have shown a signal of \"very cheap\". After all, liquidity always follows certainty.

Confirm bottom: Three signals to wait for

The report identifies three conditions needed to transform deep value into a confirmed bottom. First, selling pressure on long-term holders needs to cool down-the current flow of supply from veterans to novices must subside. Second, ETF flows must shift from net outflows to at least neutral, preferably to net inflows, and trading volumes need to show signs of recovery. Third, Bitcoin must regain its short-term holder cost base of $72200 and ideally stand at the real market average of $76600. If this recovery cannot be achieved, the market will remain \"underwater\" for most trading participants, a situation that tends to limit the room for an upside rebound until supply is fully absorbed.

For now, on-chain data reminds us that in the crypto market, price and value are not the same thing. When institutional demand is absent and long-term holders are still distributing, deep discounts may last much longer than most people expect. The absence of a bottom signal does not guarantee further market declines, but it does negate the kind of belief based buying that defines a true turning point in the cycle.

Risk appetite is also uneven in other areas. While Bitcoin is undergoing its own internal adjustments, some corners of the market are on the move-some altcoins have recorded strong weekly gains, suggesting that funds may be rotating between sectors rather than fleeing the crypto market altogether. This fragmented pattern may delay the kind of unified market recovery that can verify the arrival of a macro bottom. Bitcoin\'s move in the coming weeks is likely to revolve around two core issues: whether selling by long-term holders will dry up and whether ETF traders will eventually stop leaving the market.