Will SpaceX share price collapse? After the IPO plummeted, where should we go next?

On June 12, 2026, Elon Musk\'s SpaceX completed the largest IPO in history, and its debut lived up to expectations: the offering price was US$135 per share, the opening price was about US$150, and the first day\'s closing price was close to US$161. The company\'s market value once exceeded US$2 trillion. However, less than a month later, the situation was very different.$ SPCX has retreated to the $145 - 150 range, giving up almost all of its first-day gains and well below its intraday high of about $225 on June 16. The price of SPCX

in the past month has gone from a record sensation to a stock price hovering just above the offering price. This \"round trip\" is exactly \"Will SpaceX stock crash?\" The reason why it has become one of the most searched issues on the market today. Below we will analyze what is happening, why, and the reality of the future.

Why did SpaceX share price fall?

The decline was not a single disaster, but the result of a typical post-IPO cooling and eye-popping valuations colliding. Multiple factors are compounded:

The first-day surge was based on retail investors \'enthusiasm. SpaceX has reserved an unusually large proportion of its issued shares-reportedly about 30 percent-to individual investors, with demand oversubscribed several times. This craze often leads to an early concentration of buying, and once the initial craze subsides, stock prices usually return to near the actual issue pricing. This is roughly the current situation.

There is little room for fault tolerance in valuations. Even after the correction, the market value of $SPCX still exceeded $2 trillion, while past earnings were negative. Bulls are betting on Starlink\'s cash flow, its dominant launch business and the multi-year future prospects for xAI/Grok AI. When a stock\'s pricing requirements are executed nearly perfectly, even neutral news can trigger a sell-off.

Sector sentiment changes. Aerospace and satellite peers followed suit, while risk aversion across the high-value technology sector also weighed on the latest and most speculative stocks in the sector. The inability to include the S & P 500 for at least a year also eliminates the source of passive buying in the index that some traders had expected.

What do analysts think of SPCX?

Wall Street remains outwardly constructive-but views are deeply divided, which in itself is a warning sign. The consensus rating is \"Buy\", and the 12-month average price target is concentrated at just over $200, depending on the data provider. However, individual price targets range from about $115 at the low end to as high as $800 at the most aggressive long report. At least one of Wall Street\'s highest targets suggests huge upside potential.

The difference-low three-digit bearish expectations and high three-digit crazy forecasts-speaks to the truth: No one actually knows how to value SpaceX yet. When price targets differ by five times or more, the \"average\" price target makes little sense and the stock may still be extremely volatile. It is worth noting that at least one well-known value investor has publicly called this listing one of the historically overvalued cases and predicted an eventual collapse, while moment-focused analysts believe the next wave of gains will point to $250 or even higher.

Will SpaceX stock crash? Three Scenarios

Instead of pretending to know the outcome, it\'s better to sort out the possibilities. These are not predictions-they are the path the market is currently pricing.

Bear scenario-real correction.

If retail buying continues to fade, the end of the lock-up period or the new anti-speculation period causes more supply to enter the market, or Starship encounters a setback or a macro hedging event,$SPCX may fall below the IPO price of US$135 and continue to decline. Given the beta value and intraday volatility the stock has demonstrated, a rapid pullback of 30%-50% from current levels is well within the volatility range of such speculative stocks. This is exactly what the \"crash\" problem really points to.

Baseline scenario-long and volatile consolidation.

The stock will take months to digest valuations, fluctuating roughly between its IPO price and its first-day high, while business gradually keeps pace with expectations. Volatility and frustration, but not a crash-this is the typical fate of a hyped large IPO after the dust settles.

Bullish scenario-the story repeats itself.

Strong starchain data, starship progress, momentum of xAI/Grok integration and eventual inclusion in the index have attracted buyers to re-enter, stock prices have re-tested and exceeded previous highs, moving towards the upper limit of analyst target prices.

The disturbing reality: All three scenarios are currently possible, and the stock could fluctuate significantly in either direction until the fundamentals become clearer.

How to trade SpaceX stock price in both directions?

Many investors here will get into trouble. If you think $SPCX will fall, there is no benefit just holding stocks-if you think it will rise, you may need leverage or the flexibility to act quickly. This is where contracts for difference (CFDs) come in because they allow you to hold positions in both directions: if you support a bullish scenario, go long; if you think a crash is imminent, you can short.