Gold price forecast: Senior analysts warn-ignoring this chart will be your biggest financial mistake

Gold Price Forecast: Senior analysts warn that not paying attention to this chart will be your biggest financial mistake.

Gold has performed strongly recently, hitting an all-time high earlier this year, approaching $5,500 an ounce. Subsequently, gold prices entered a much-needed consolidation phase.

Currently, gold is trading in the range of US$4,100 to US$4,200 per ounce. The correction has led many investors to question whether the gold bull market is still intact.

There are different opinions on gold price prediction models. Some analysts view the recent correction as the beginning of a larger decline. Others, however, view it as a routine pause in a long-term uptrend.

A senior analyst is firmly in the second camp, wanting investors to focus on a chart he first released five years ago.

How analysts accurately predict every key price of gold

This analyst first released this gold chart five to six years ago. He drew a black trend line on the historical price chart and pointed out that it was a bullish blue rising wedge pattern. At the time, the market had little interest in this form. Gold was trading well below what became a key support level.

His most important forecast centers on the $1,673 price. While everyone regarded the $2,000 to $2,100 range as the main resistance level, he pointed out that $1,673 was the real breakthrough point.

For years, I have emphasized that not taking this simple chart seriously will be the biggest financial mistake of your life. I first released this chart during a backtest of the black trend line five or six years ago, pointing out that it was most likely a bullish blue rising wedge. I have also been saying...

This is not a speculation. $1,673 is a structural boundary that will determine whether gold\'s long-term trend is maintained. The market finally proved him right. Gold stood back at $1,673 in 2020 and successfully stepped back to this level in the 2021-2022 correction.

His predictions for silver follow a similar pattern. When everyone\'s eyes were focused on $50, he identified $28.50 and $35 as key resistance levels. Silver did encounter resistance at its expected position, but then something unexpected happened-it broke through $50 as easily as a layer of paper. This breakthrough confirms what analysts have always believed.

Gold Chart Analysis

Long-term gold charts show a long-term continuation pattern that is rare among major asset classes. A huge rising wedge pattern lasted for nearly 15 years, eventually breaking through upward in 2024.

Bullish rising wedges are still rare in technical analysis. Most wedge shapes break downward, which explains why many analysts once doubted this pattern. However, once the bullish wedge option breaks through upwards, it will often produce explosive trends. This is exactly what happened after gold broke through the upper boundary of its decades-long consolidation range.

Gold price forecasting models based on pattern recognition now face an important question: Has the breakthrough completed its initial stage, or is the current daily correction just a normal pause before further gains?

The daily chart shows that gold is trading around US$4,125 and is stable above the psychological support level of US$4,000. The momentum indicator is improving after months of weakness, the William indicator %R is moving back into neutral territory, and the Stochastic indicator RSI is back into overbought territory.

Immediate resistance is between $4,250 and $4,350, followed by a $4,600 to $4,800 range. Further up, it is close to the main swing high of $5,500. On the downside side, support levels are in the range of US$4,000, US$3,900 and US$3,700 to US$3,750 respectively.

The $1,673 blueprint: What did Volkswagen go wrong (and still does)

Before 2020,$1,673 was the upper bound of resistance for nearly a decade. Every major rally failed here and failed to achieve stable price acceptance. When gold finally broke through, many investors thought it was just another false breakthrough similar to the past. They expected a rapid reversal and laid out accordingly.

However, the market made a more important move. During the correction period in 2021 and 2022, prices returned to this level and successfully held on to it. From a technical perspective, early resistance has transformed into long-term structural support.

Public psychology often focuses on recent price trends, thus ignoring the more macro picture. Most investors view those pullbacks as the beginning of a new bear market, as prices stop hitting new highs. Gold price forecast analysis must take this psychology into account. Successful backstepping is often more important than the breakthrough itself. It shows buyers are still willing to defend higher valuations after enthusiasm has subsided. Once the step back is successful, the probability of continuing the rise will increase.

Gold Price Forecast: Is $48,000 Really Possible?

The chart mentions a figure close to US$48,000. This is an approximate level that gold might reach if the U.S. M2 money supply was fully supported by gold. This comparison is more illustrative than predictive. However, it provides a framework for us to understand what kind of monetary environment is needed.

For gold price prediction models to approach such numbers, several developments need to occur simultaneously. The most direct path is continued currency devaluation. Decades of continuous expansion of the global money supply, coupled with an annual growth of only 1-2% in physical gold supply, will naturally push up the purchasing power of gold. Structural inflation rather than cyclical inflation is also necessary. Temporary price surges cannot support such high valuations.

The reallocation of central bank reserves continues to increase. A more aggressive shift from dollar-denominated reserves to physical gold will tighten available supply, which will also increase institutional demand. Even under optimistic assumptions, the move towards $48,000 could take years rather than within a market cycle.

What this means for gold investors until the end of 2026

The short-term outlook is more realistic than the long-term discussion. For the rest of 2026, investors should focus on whether gold can successfully build support above the $4,000 area. Getting back above these levels will help try again to hit previous highs near $5,500. Failure to recover resistance could expose the market to a deeper correction, pointing to the $3,700 to $3,750 area.

Macro data are equally important. The Federal Reserve\'s interest rate expectations continue to drive short-term price movements. The U.S. real rate of return, the strength of the U.S. dollar, central bank\'s gold purchasing behavior, inflation expectations, wage growth and geopolitical developments will all affect the next important directional change.

The industry is in the midst of a necessary and expected correction. The huge bearish candle pattern so far this year needs to be changed before the end of the year or the market could face a blue backtest.

FAQs

Why is gold consolidating after hitting a record high?
Gold entered a consolidation phase after rising to a record high of nearly US$5,500. Profit-taking, changes in the Federal Reserve\'s interest rate expectations, a stronger dollar and rising real yields all contributed to the correction.

Why is the $1,673 price so important to gold?
US$1,673 is a long-term breakthrough point, which has suppressed gold prices for nearly a decade. After breaking through this level in 2020, gold successfully stepped back at this level during the 2021-2022 correction.

Can gold really reach $48,000?
US$48,000 is a theoretical valuation based on the assumption that the U.S. M2 money supply is entirely backed by gold. This is not a short-term price target, but a possibility that describes what could happen despite decades of money supply expansion, persistent inflation, and significant growth in global demand for physical gold.