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BTC Bitcoin recently lags behind U.S. stocks, analysts warn of a final wave of selling.
Bitcoin\'s recent performance lags behind the U.S. stock market, reigniting market discussions about whether the cryptocurrency has hit bottom. Cryptocurrency analyst Niels pointed out that before Bitcoin finds a cyclical low, it may experience a sharp sell-off, which is likely to be triggered by a stock market downturn.
BTC/S & P 500 ratio: Relative performance becomes the focus
Niels cited the BTC/SPX ratio, which measures Bitcoin\'s performance relative to the S & P 500 index, and pointed out that Bitcoin still lags behind U.S. stocks. Analysts believe that a significant decline in the stock market may trigger a final round of panic selling in Bitcoin, after which Bitcoin is expected to outperform traditional markets.
Niels believes that a possible stock market crash will trigger a final wave of selling of Bitcoin, and then BTC may start to outperform stocks. The charts he shared highlighted historical support and resistance levels for the BTC/SPX ratio, showing that Bitcoin has not yet been able to establish sustained relative strength against stocks. Analysts do not view the chart as a direct price forecast, but rather as a framework to illustrate the impact of broader macroeconomic forces on Bitcoin.
Terminology: The BTC/SPX ratio measures Bitcoin\'s performance relative to the S & P 500 Index. A rising ratio indicates that Bitcoin is outperforming stocks, while a falling ratio means Bitcoin is lagging behind.
Macroeconomic factors dominate Bitcoin pricing
Historically, during times of tightening monetary policy and low risk appetite, Bitcoin has often moved in sync with technology stocks. High interest rates and economic uncertainty have dampened demand for risky assets, causing similar price reactions in Bitcoin and the stock market.
However, previous cycles have also shown that Bitcoin can decouple from traditional markets over time. During periods when liquidity increases and investor confidence is restored, BTC often outperforms many stock indexes. Whether this trend will recur will depend largely on macroeconomic data and institutional capital flows.
ETF changes the pattern of previous cycles
Unlike past market cycles, Bitcoin now enjoys support from a wider range of institutional participants due to the emergence of the U.S. spot BTC ETF. BlackRock\'s iShares BTC Trust has quickly become one of the fastest-growing products, highlighting the continued institutional interest even in a volatile market environment.
BlackRock data shows that iShares BTC Trust is one of the fastest-growing spot Bitcoin ETFs, suggesting that institutional interest remains even in turbulent times. Inflows from these ETFs create new sources of demand not seen in past cycles. Although institutional buying helped offset selling pressure, the broader market downturn could still put pressure on Bitcoin in the short term. Investors \'actions to reduce risk in other markets may also put additional pressure on Bitcoin prices.
Stock market and market sentiment may determine Bitcoin\'s next step
The next phase for Bitcoin may depend on whether the U.S. stock market maintains its current momentum or falls into a deeper correction. If stocks weaken significantly, BTC may face a new round of selling before strengthening its relative performance.
The above scenario is only an analyst\'s view and is not a deterministic market forecast. For some time to come, investors will pay close attention to macroeconomic data, Federal Reserve policies, ETF fund flows and on-chain indicators in order to better judge the trend of Bitcoin.
