Bitcoin ETF suffered a $2.7 billion sell-off, net outflow expanded to $85 million

Bitcoin\'s institutional narrative is changing, but it is not yet clear-the Swiss Research newspaper pointed out that the most violent sell-off of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in the current bear market appears to have ended, but still warned that institutional demand is \"not yet strong.\"

Although the capital flow of the U.S. spot bitcoin ETF briefly shifted from a net outflow for ten consecutive days (totaling US$2.7 billion) to a net inflow, on-chain and derivative-related research still shows differences: futures demand The recovery rate has surpassed spot buying. This divergence is important because it often signals whether the recovery is sustainable or just a technical rebound.

Core Points

According to data from Farside Investors, since June 17, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has ended the previous ten-consecutive-day net outflow trend (cumulative net outflow of US$2.7 billion). Swiss blockchain analyst firm Swissblock said the \"most concentrated\" selling phase was over, but warned that the increase in holdings remained in a \"positive but not yet strong\" state. ETF flows initially stabilized-net inflows exceeded US$500 million in three trading days-but remained fragile after subsequent net outflows. CryptoQuant\'s analysis shows a demand gap: demand for derivatives has become neutral, while spot demand remains negative.

Swissblock: ETF \"storm\" seems to have passed

In a post posted on Thursday, Swissblock described recent ETF dynamics as the end of a period of unusually heavy selling pressure. The agency called this period \"the most concentrated wave of ETF selling in this bear market\" and added: \"The storm is over.\" Swissblock also linked the change to an improved risk profile, noting that \"Bitcoin risks are continuing to ease from capitulation risks\" and that spot ETF flows have \"turned slightly positive again.\" The specific funding data cited in the article comes from Farside Investors, a British investment data provider that tracks ETF movements.

According to data from Farside Investors, since June 17, the net outflow of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF products has totaled US$2.7 billion for ten consecutive trading days. The trend has since reversed, with net inflows exceeding $500 million in three trading days-yet the most recent trading day mentioned in the article (Wednesday) closed with a net outflow of $84.9 million. Swissblock characterized the rally as a signal worthy of attention, but should not be over-interpreted. The agency said the development provided a \"caveat\" to the recovery narrative-acknowledging that ETF holdings have improved, but \"institutional confidence has not fully returned.\"

\"Has the storm passed? Or is Bitcoin just at the eye of the storm?\"

Why ETF funding flows matter-even if there are turning points

Spot Bitcoin ETFs have become a key channel for traditional and institutional investors to gain BTC exposure. When capital flows continue to be negative for a long time, it often reflects the continued risk-averse stance of investors using these regulated instruments for allocation. Therefore, a shift from long-term net outflow to net inflow, even if small or intermittent, may not only represent a short-term trading response. This may indicate that some funds are flowing back after risk removal pressures have eased.

Still, Swissblock\'s analysis is instructive for investors: \"Positive but not yet strong\" means stabilization rather than a full reinstatement of institutional capital. The specific pattern highlighted in the article-three days of considerable inflows followed by a small outflow-suggests that demand may improve unevenly rather than a clear upward trend.

Spot vs. futures comparison: CryptoQuant observes growing mismatch

In addition to the headlines of ETF capital flows, the overall pattern of Bitcoin demand in various market scenarios remains mixed. Reports previously cited in the article pointed out that demand is a recurring obstacle to continued bullish market recovery. In the latest research shared by CryptoQuant this week, contributor IT Tech described the current situation as a \"partial improvement\" while emphasizing that \"there is a clear divergence between the spot market and the derivatives market.\" Based on this view, the cumulative total demand for 30 days has been restored from the previous level close to minus 500,000 BTC to approximately minus 75,000 BTC.

More importantly, IT Tech pointed out that futures demand is recovering faster than spot demand. During the same period, futures demand has shifted from the previous negative 295,000 BTC to \"slightly positive\", while spot demand continues to record negative. \"This tells us an important message: this rally is mainly driven by derivatives traders, while spot buyers remain relatively cautious,\" IT Tech commented. CryptoQuant\'s analysis is consistent with a common market dynamic: Derivatives can reflect rapidly changing expectations and hedging activity, while spot buying-especially from long-term participants-often requires greater confidence. The article also includes a historical observation from IT Tech: the most reliable upstarts often occur when futures and spot demand rises simultaneously.

What to focus on next: Whether spot buying will return to the current stage

The key uncertainty is whether the improvement in ETFs can translate into stronger and more lasting spot demand. Swissblock\'s conclusion (that holdings are improving but institutional confidence has not yet fully restored), combined with CryptoQuant\'s view of spot/derivatives differentiation, suggests that investors should focus on confirmation of multiple indicators rather than relying on a single reversal of capital flows.

In future trading hours, readers should pay attention to whether the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF can show sustained net inflows (rather than just a brief burst), while looking for evidence that spot demand is actually positive rather than just stabilizing, especially when derivatives activity leads the rebound.