Bitcoin rose 3% as oil prices fell, but the $65,000 mark suppressed the rebound

Bitcoin rallies to $64,300: Geophysical easing and macro data boost market sentiment

Bitcoin rose about 3% to $64,300 as crude oil prices fell below $72 and news of continued peace talks between the United States and Iran rekindled risk appetite in the crypto market.

Market Overview

Bitcoin broke through US$64,300 as falling oil prices and the resumption of US-Iran negotiations boosted risk appetite. A short squeeze worth $79.5 million boosted the rally, with $65,000 remaining the key resistance level. Analysts pointed out that if it can break through US$65,000, Bitcoin is expected to reach US$68,000; otherwise, if it is rejected, it may fall back to around US$62,000.

The rally came after two volatile trading days. Previously, a new round of U.S. strikes on Iranian targets and Tehran\'s attack on U.S. bases pushed West Texas Intermediate crude oil closer to $75 and pushed Bitcoin to around $62,500.

U.S. President Donald Trump had declared a temporary ceasefire \"over,\" but subsequent reports that negotiations were continuing extended Thursday\'s decline in crude oil prices. However, West Texas Intermediate crude oil still rose more than 4% during the week, and traders remained wary of another geopolitical reversal.

U.S. macro data also provided support for the market. The United States added only 57,000 jobs in June, a weak data that boosted market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates faster. At the same time, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh said inflation risks had eased, pushing down Treasury yields and the dollar exchange rate. Bitcoin has benefited as investors return to non-yielding assets.

Glassnode\'s data shows that spot selling pressure has subsided after a longer distribution period. At the same time, the Coinbase Premium Index rose on the recovery of U.S. demand. The market also digested the $216 million bitcoin sale reported by Strategy earlier this week, but Bitcoin prices did not fall below the $60,000 mark until buyers returned.

Technical analysis: Bitcoin needs to close above US$65,000 to continue its rebound

From the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin has exceeded US$63,000, and once hit a high near US$64,480 during the session. CoinGlass data showed that about $79.5 million in short positions were cleared in 24 hours, and traders \'ability to cover short positions further pushed up the price of Bitcoin.

The three-day liquidation heat chart shows that the nearest large leverage cluster above the current price is between US$64,700 and US$65,000.

Based on the Fibonacci structure from US$67,311 to US$57,806, the 23.6% retracement level is at US$65,068, while US$63,681 is currently the first support level. If the 4-hour chart closes above $65,000, it will break through both the Fibonacci resistance level and the daily resistance line near $65,006.

Analyst Ted Pillows said,\"Bitcoin has returned to the resistance zone of $64,000 to $65,000.\" Pillows added that if the area is successfully recovered, Bitcoin may hit US$68,000; if it is blocked again, it may fall back to around US$62,000.

Market momentum has improved, but the chart has not yet confirmed a lasting reversal of trend. The Aroon Up indicator on the 4-hour chart has reached 100%, while the Aroon Down indicator is 21.43%. The SuperTrend indicator has turned green, with support close to $61,945.

On the daily chart, the MACD line has crossed its signal line, but both are still below the zero axis. As buying pressure returns, the Chaikin fund flow indicator has risen to 0.10.

Downside risks and external factors

If the US$62,000 is lost, downside space may reopen. The same heat map shows a dense clearing range around $61,000 to $61,200, and if Bitcoin fails to break through $65,000, prices may be pulled towards this area. The next chart support levels are $62,559,$61,437 and $59,840, respectively. A break below SuperTrend support of $61,945 would weaken the current recovery momentum and could expose a bottom area near $58,000 at the end of June.

Cryptocurrency trader Daan Crypto Trades pointed out that Bitcoin is still close to its weekly 200-cycle moving average and high time-frame support. Although the weekly price closed below the moving average once, it was quickly recovered by last week\'s positive line. He warned that if the weekly close fell below about $55,000, the decline could accelerate.

Geopolitics remains the main external risk. Another attack near the Strait of Hormuz could push up oil prices, boost the dollar and reverse the flow of money to risky assets. Bitcoin is still above $63,681, but bulls still need a decisive close above $65,000 before rallying towards $68,000.

Disclosure: This article does not constitute investment advice. The content and materials displayed on this page are for educational purposes only.