Bitcoin returns to $64,300, rising to a three-week high

Summary of highlights

BTC/USD rose above US$64,000, approaching a three-week high, according to TradingView data.

Weak oil prices and a falling dollar provide a more favorable background for cryptocurrency risk sentiment.

QCP Capital pointed out that the U.S. strategic oil reserves have fallen to their lowest level since 1983. If energy supply tightens, downside risks will increase.

The Kobeissi Letter pointed out that the probability of U.S. inflation exceeding 4.5% in 2026 will decline, citing Polymarket\'s expected data.

Analysts once again see US$65,000 as a key resistance level for Bitcoin\'s next direction.

Macro headwinds weaken, Bitcoin sword points to US$65,000

TradingView chart shows that BTC/USD continues to rise, breaking through US$64,000 and testing the upper edge of the near-term range. Being just one step away from a three-week high suggests that the market is still in a short-term momentum phase rather than turning completely into cautious consolidation.

This momentum seems to benefit from two macro variables that favor Bitcoin: oil prices and the U.S. dollar. Although traders focus on multiple factors at the same time, the combination of reduced energy pressures and weaker currencies often provides broader liquidity conditions for speculative assets.

Peace deal hopes oil prices will remain weak, but energy buffers appear weak

The hope that U.S. -Iranian peace efforts may be saved is a key narrative driving daily fluctuations in oil prices. Even so, crude oil has not shown continued strength: According to the TradingView one-day CFD chart quoted in the article, WTI crude oil is still under pressure after encountering resistance near US$76 per barrel.

At the same time, QCP Capital warned that the lack of a \"monetary buffer\" meant that the physical energy buffer was more important than when the market expected a bailout to come easily. The QCP also pointed out that recent developments in the Strait of Hormuz have left supply risks unresolved, and highlighted the status of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).

\"Reserves appear even weaker: SPR currently stands at 319.5 million barrels, the lowest level since 1983, with only 19.5 million barrels remaining short of the 300 million barrel pressure zone.\"

For cryptocurrency traders, the actual impact is not that oil prices must rise to benefit Bitcoin-it is that tightening energy resilience will quickly translate into volatility. If geopolitical risks escalate, energy shocks could tighten financial conditions, potentially reversing the liquidity tailwind that Bitcoin currently seems to be tapping.

The fall in the dollar and inflation expectations point to a more risk-friendly tone

The article also highlighted the weakening of the dollar, pointing out that the dollar index fell for the third consecutive day, close to its lowest level since mid-June. A weaker dollar could ease financial pressures and boost demand for assets priced or affected by global liquidity conditions.

In addition, The Kobeissi Letter points to a shift in inflation expectations in 2026. According to the article, the probability that U.S. inflation will exceed 4.5% next year has dropped below 20%, citing Polymarket data. In its framework, inflation expectations are \"falling again,\" a view supported by a post on Thursday.

When inflation expectations soften, markets often expect the policy path to be less tight. In the specific case of Bitcoin, this can increase the relative attractiveness of non-yielding assets-although the impact is often non-linear and sensitive to any new macro surprises.

From macro to crypto: \"instability has spread\", but bulls bet on technical positions

Although the short-term outlook is biased towards positive, QCP Capital also offered a cautious rebuttal: It points out that recent stress signals are not limited to traditional finance. The article quoted QCP as saying that after recent BTC sales by \"Strategy\"(specified in the original text),\"instability\" seems to have spread to the crypto space.

QCP also pointed out that redemption dynamics in the private credit sector have deteriorated, saying that multiple funds have hit the 5% quarterly redemption threshold. This is critical for the crypto space, as credit market pressures can affect financing costs, risk appetite and investors \'ability to maintain leverage-even if crypto prices temporarily rebound.

Against this background, some traders maintain a bullish short-term stance and focus on technical levels. Michaël van de Poppe believes that the direction of oil prices is one of the driving factors driving the market\'s \"sharp rise\" and said that \"Bitcoin once again hit the key resistance level of $65,000.\" In his view, a breakthrough of $65,000 could help change the broader market structure, turning \"the downward trend of many altcoins into an upward trend.\"

What to focus on next

As Bitcoin approaches $65,000, the key question is whether the current weakening of the dollar and weakness in oil prices can last long enough to break through that resistance. At the same time, investors should focus on the energy risk indicators pointed out by the QCP and the broader credit conditions, as any reversal could quickly exhaust the macro tailwind that currently supports the rally.