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Bitcoin price's "breakthrough" is an illusion, and the $62500 level is back in focus

2026-07-17 00:45:46
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Bitcoin traders hit on both sides of the week, chart analysts interpret key prices

A chart analyst who tracks recent price fluctuations pointed out that Bitcoin traders suffered losses on both sides in the same trap this week, and the subsequent impact is revealing the truly important current price levels.

Bitcoin has been consolidating in a triangular shape for several consecutive days. When prices finally broke through upwards, traders poured into long positions, expecting prices to continue to rise. However, this breakthrough was not held.

According to the analyst, Bitcoin's triangular breakthrough was actually a fake breakthrough, resulting in a large number of traders being liquidated. He said he avoided the deal completely because he didn't trust breakthrough forms. His trading principle is: only enter at support levels, preferably after liquidity is quickly absorbed, rather than chasing breakthroughs.

Prices that really deserve attention

By analyzing the volume distribution of Bitcoin's recent price movements, the analyst found a recurring price area-the control point, the area with the largest volume on the entire chart.

He said that the largest single support level on the entire chart for Bitcoin is around $62,500. The price overlaps with three separate technical tools: a control point for the volume distribution, an anchored volume-weighted average drawn from recent lows, and an uptrend line connecting Bitcoin's recent rising lows.

Interpret current callback as wave count

The analyst views Bitcoin's larger trend as an ABC correction wave. The current trend is called the "C wave", and the C wave itself is expected to unfold in five sub-waves. He believes that the first wave of the structure has been completed and Bitcoin is currently in the second wave, the current pullback stage.

The Fibonacci pullback level gives two targets for the possible end of the pullback: a shallower target around $63,600 and a deeper target close to $62,500, which is in line with previous support levels determined based on volume. He said that if the price clearly fell below $61,700, it would negate the current bullish wave count, marking the failure of his entire bullish argument.

Resistance above

Above the current price, the analyst focuses on resistance around $65,700. He said this area has extra weight because two independent liquidity pools are superimposed at the same level, as well as the upper trajectory of the downcomer channel.

If Bitcoin can break through this resistance and form a third wave of gains, he expects prices to continue to move towards $68,000, an area that overlaps with the anchored volume-weighted average price resistance area on the daily chart and the Fibonacci expansion target. The analyst's next major upside target for Bitcoin is around US$68,000 to US$69,000.

What does this mean for traders

The analyst said he still holds long positions in Bitcoin and Ethereum, as well as existing long positions in Hyperliquid. As long as Bitcoin remains above recent lows, he continues to view the pullback towards support as a buying opportunity rather than a reason to turn bearish.

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