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Following
BTC Bitcoin prices briefly exceeded US$64,000 after lower-than-expected U.S. consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) data were released. However, this increase was limited due to selling pressure.
As the market is closely watching whether Bitcoin's rally can continue, the price expectations of investors in the Bitcoin options market have shifted significantly.
Bitcoin expectations are lowered!
This shift is seen as likely to slow down Bitcoin's important position change beyond US$70,000. Currently, the strike price of the most popular call option in the Bitcoin options market has dropped from $80,000 to $70,000.
Based on open interest data, call options with an exercise price of US$70,000 are currently the most popular contract, with open interest reaching US$1.63 billion.
As a result, it has been the hottest call option for the past six months at a strike price of US$80,000, and has now slipped to US$70,000. The $10,000 downgrade shows that investors have lowered their expectations for the price Bitcoin is expected to achieve in the short term.
Data also shows that put options with an exercise price of US$60,000 are the most actively traded short contracts. Analysts pointed out that this suggests that investors view the $60,000 to $70,000 range as a benchmark price for Bitcoin in the short term.
Imran Lakha, founder of Options Insights, analyzed in an interview that market makers are likely to hedge selling risks above $70,000 to maintain their neutral positions. "This hedging acts as a brake and limits the speed at which Bitcoin prices can climb after they rise," Rakha said. He also pointed out that the move could trigger hedging sales when prices rise, thereby limiting the speed at which Bitcoin can rise after breaking through $70,000.
Expectations for Bitcoin to exceed US$70,000 are heating up!
In addition, Greeks.live analyst Adam said that there were a large number of call options trading in Bitcoin today, with a total of 25,766 Bitcoin call options traded, with a nominal value of approximately US$1.65 billion. Among these call options, the most popular are contracts that expire at the end of the month and have strike prices of $70,000 and $72,000.
The analyst pointed out that these transactions occurred about two weeks before the expiration date, reflecting the market's optimistic view of Bitcoin's short-term performance. However, he also pointed out that investors did not directly take high-risk long positions, but instead chose low-cost bullish spread strategies. This suggests that despite bullish expectations, investors have taken a more cautious and controllable approach.
As a result, movements in the options market are regarded as a key indicator of Bitcoin's short-term direction, and the US$70,000 to 72,000 region has become a key price for investors.
* The above does not constitute investment advice.
