Bitcoin fell below US$62,500, and risks caused by the situation in Iran spread to U.S. stocks

Bitcoin fell below US$62,500: Both geopolitical risks and market sentiment exerted pressure

After Wall Street opened on Friday, the price of Bitcoin slipped below US$62,500. As risk sentiment worsened, the market once again ushered in violent fluctuations. The decline stems from the U.S. market's re-pricing of the escalating tensions between the United States and Iran. The stock market came under pressure and the cryptocurrency market also weakened.

Traders described Bitcoin's current trend as "capricious," with buyers and sellers repeatedly failing to establish a clear direction after previous gains. From a technical perspective, analysts pointed out that Bitcoin's long-term downward trend may be entering a critical stage as the asset has transformed an important long-term moving average into resistance.

Key Points

Bitcoin fell below US$62,500 after the opening of trading in the United States, as U.S. stocks fell due to reports about the US-Iran conflict. Trading data showed that the biggest decline in BTC/USD on the day was about 2%. Market participants said Bitcoin is repeating its previous pattern: local highs are experiencing selling pressure and prices are still in range volatility. Analysts pointed out that Bitcoin has turned its 50-month exponential moving average into resistance, which historically is often a precursor to a price move towards a long-term bottom.

U.S. stocks are under pressure again, Bitcoin weakens simultaneously

According to the trading data quoted in the report, BTC/USD continued its decline during the trading session, with the largest decline on the day reaching approximately 2%. This trend coincides with the general risk aversion sentiment in the U.S. market. As of press time, U.S. stocks opened lower, with the Nasdaq Composite Index down nearly 2%. A new round of military strikes on Iran has been listed as the main catalyst for the fall of risky assets, and technology stocks continue to face selling pressure.

Individual stock news also increased market pressure. Relevant analysis pointed out that the financial failure caused Netflix to fall more than 10% at the opening of the United States. The stock has fallen by about 50% in the past 12 months and is currently trading at its lowest level since August 2024.

Traders face familiar market rhythm after hitting a three-week high

Bitcoin's decline has previously experienced a rebound that hit a three-week high. But after rushing higher, the market quickly returned to range volatility, and traders observed a resurgence of "follow-up" selling. One market commentator pointed out that this pattern is repeating itself: first,"selling into passive demand areas," then short positions increase, and spot buying begins to re-emerge-an imbalance that often triggers sharp rebounds rather than smooth trends.

Another trader described the current market landscape as seasonal and lacking direction, pointing out that the trend in recent weeks has been "very volatile", with ups and downs alternating but lacking sustainability. This view is consistent with the overall judgment of range volatility: highs are sold, support levels are tested, and the market is wandering in turmoil rather than establishing a new trend.

Bear market "milestone" and 50-month moving average fell

In addition to short-term price movements, the attention of the crypto market remains focused on the long-term pattern of the Bitcoin bear market cycle. Analysts believe Bitcoin has converted its 50-month exponential moving average into resistance, marking that prices are approaching a key technical milestone. The analyst said the interaction of BTC/USD with the 50-month moving average is repeating bear market history, a change that paves the way for the next phase of decline towards a long-term bottom. "The necessary technical milestone has been reached," he wrote in the update, adding that the milestone "technically suggests that most of the expected decline has occurred."

While such signals are often discussed as evidence that markets are maturing through a bear market phase, they also leave traders with a lot of uncertainty. Even if the downward trend is in an advanced stage, timing can still be full of variables-especially when external factors such as macro news and the geopolitical situation continue to change risk appetite.

Key Points for Follow-up Attention for Investors

Given Bitcoin's current highly sensitive trading environment-influenced by stock market sentiment and reflecting recurring technical behavior-investors should pay close attention to whether support near recent range lows can be held or broken, and whether Bitcoin's resistance response near the main long-term moving average continues. The direction of the next round of volatility is likely to be influenced by both risk sentiment and Bitcoin's own technical situation.