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BTC 
ETH On July 17, Pi Network's PI token price recorded an increase of about 5%, and the trading price was close to US$0.08, while other cryptocurrency markets generally fell. The global cryptocurrency market fell by about 1.6% in 24 hours, with its total market value falling to about US$2.27 trillion, and total trading volume reaching US$62 billion. During the same period, Bitcoin fell approximately 1.01% to approximately US$63,944; Ethereum fell 2.39% to US$1,866.
Against this background, it is quite remarkable that PI can rise against the trend. The token is not traded simultaneously with mainstream currencies. Its order book is shallow and its holders are mainly retail investors, which means that its trend can be independent of Bitcoin and Ethereum, and the direction of rise and fall depends on the market sentiment of the day. This time, this independence played a positive role.
The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index is 27, which is in the "fear" range, indicating that investors remain cautious despite continued uncertainty, profit-taking and lack of buying confidence. Such a low reading reflects the overall defensive state of the market, which also makes the PI's rise even more prominent.
rallies from historical lows
But background factors cannot be ignored. The day's increase came after a long decline. PI had previously traded close to US$0.084 and remained under pressure despite the recent rebound from the US$0.075 to US$0.076 region. The token is still down about 19% this week, which means Thursday's gain was just a rebound rather than a trend reversal.
Technically, Pi Network is still in a bear market structure, with prices below the 20-day exponential moving average ($0.1039), the 50-day exponential moving average ($0.1218), the 100-day exponential moving average ($0.1403) and the 200-day exponential moving average ($0.1841). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is 24.32, indicating that the market is oversold, which increases the possibility of a short-term rebound. But oversold alone are not enough to constitute a recovery.
On the supply side, approximately 103.7 million PI tokens will be unlocked in July, adding new saleable supply to a market where buyers are already difficult to find. PiVerify's "Pay in PI Tokens" model is the most direct mechanism for creating real token demand, but the adoption of external platforms takes time. Until PiVerify, Pi Sign-in integration, or SoloHost usage is reflected in on-chain data, the token unlocking program will remain the dominant price variable in the short term.
One-day rise, weekly decline: Which is the signal?
A single-day market cannot change the overall pattern. The PI remains below the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day and 200-day index moving averages, indicating that the overall trend is still biased towards sellers. The latest rally suggests some buying interest near recent lows, but stronger evidence is needed before a trend reversal is confirmed.
For now, the rise in PI is more due to its own market structure than any shift in fundamentals. A shallow order book and a largely retail holder structure mean short-term volatility can be sharp, and sharp volatility can fade quickly. This week's 19% decline is the more objective data that is difficult to ignore.
This article is for information reference only and does not constitute investment advice.
