Market expert ARK Invest releases in-depth report on Bitcoin: The bottom is here, or is it yet to be

ARK Invest pointed out that although Bitcoin fell by about 14% in the second quarter of 2026, on-chain data suggests that selling pressure is coming to an end. The company believes that the amount of Bitcoin held by long-term investors has reached a record high, an important signal that the market may bottom out.

According to ARK Invest's second-quarter Bitcoin report, Bitcoin closed at approximately US$58,544 in June. During this period, Bitcoin prices fell below the short-term investor realization price (approximately $70,327), the 200-day moving average (approximately $75,371), and the average cost on the chain (approximately $76,660).

The report pointed out that Bitcoin prices continue to fall below these three key moving averages, which has historically been related to market bear market conditions. Therefore, there has been no significant improvement in the technical aspects.

However, indicators on the chain suggest that the sell-off may be in its final stages. In this cycle, the proportion of bitcoin supply at a loss exceeded its profit for the first time, reaching approximately 54%. The proportion of profitable Bitcoin dropped to 46%.

ARK Invest points out that loss supply exceeds profit supply, a phenomenon that has usually occurred near the bottom of past market cycles. The realized loss ratio briefly exceeded the realized profit ratio and fell to 0.82, which was also seen as a sign that selling pressure had dried up.

Another key finding in the report is the amount of Bitcoin held by long-term investors. In the second quarter, the supply of bitcoins held by long-term investors increased by approximately 313,000 to a record high of 14.85 million.

ARK Invest believes that long-term investors with firm beliefs continue to increase their holdings of scattered bitcoins in the market during periods of price declines. The company pointed out that the increase in the supply of long-term investors during the price decline has created a positive divergence from a market fundamentals perspective.

However, the report mentioned that Bitcoin has not yet fallen back to historically low on-chain cost ranges. The current Bitcoin price is approximately US$53,000, while the investor cost price is approximately US$49,000.

ARK Invest stated that since Bitcoin has not yet tested the cost range of US$49,000 to US$53,000, downside risks have not completely disappeared. The company believes that the reverse-to-average process that has accompanied global market lows in the past has not yet occurred.

The report also pointed out that the outflow of funds from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs has intensified market pressure. These funds experienced net outflows for seven consecutive weeks at the end of the quarter, with asset losses of approximately 71,000 bitcoins throughout the second quarter. In the worst week of late June, about 30,000 bitcoins were withdrawn from ETFs. ARK Invest said weakening demand for spot ETFs suggests that one of the most important sources of marginal demand supporting bitcoin prices has lost momentum.

Bitcoin vault's financing situation also showed signs of pressure. Strategy's preferred stock STRC (code-named "Stretch") fell from a face value of $100 to a low of $74.57 during the quarter, and closed at about $84.86 in the second quarter. ARK Invest pointed out that STRC trading prices below face value may mean higher financing costs for leveraged companies that build Bitcoin vaults.

The three-month Bitcoin futures basis remained low but positive, averaging 2.3% throughout the quarter. This ratio occasionally approaches the spot premium, indicating limited demand for leveraged long positions and willingness to speculate.

ARK Invest comprehensively evaluates technical indicators, on-chain data and the macroeconomic environment. The report believes that technology-driven productivity gains limit inflationary pressures. The report pointed out that although unit labor costs rose 0.5%, productivity increased 2.8%, and core consumer inflation remained at about 2.9% despite rising oil prices.

The company also believes that the flattening of the yield curve reflects a deflationary trend rather than a recession. It pointed out that artificial intelligence, energy infrastructure, deregulation and regulations that allow capital expenditures to be directly expensed together underpin capital expenditures.

According to data from ARK Invest, new orders for core capital goods hit a record high and broke through the 25-year resistance level, indicating that a sustained growth cycle driven by technology and energy investment is taking shape.

* This article does not constitute investment advice.